Wyoming vs. Central Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Central Michigan gets at Wyoming: 77th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 110th at stuffing runs at the line. Wyoming projects no clear way in against Central Michigan.
How
CMUattacks
WYO
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
CMU#77 of 138WYO#110 of 138
The two teams
Wyoming
Wyoming is in year 3 under Jay Sawvel. The way in is 129th at surviving second and twelve, and they are 129th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Wyoming has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#129projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#129projected
- Offensethrowing it#127projected
Central Michigan
Central Michigan is in year 2 under Matt Drinkall. The way in is 115th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 104th at moving the ball on the ground.
Central Michigan has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#115projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#104projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CMU Elo 1259, WYO Elo 1300 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CMU -5.3 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WYO109th52ndCMUCMU130th101stWYOThrough the air
WYO121st38thCMUCMU134th94thWYOOn the ground
WYO79th102ndCMUCMU69th97thWYOStaying on the field
WYO123rd103rdCMUCMU118th92ndWYOTaking care of it
WYO133rd14thCMUCMU129th53rdWYO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WYO | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.9 (#123) | CORE overall | -11.4 (#116) |
| -10 / +3 | offense / defense | -11 / +1 |
| 1.00 | points / drive | 0.78 |
| 3.50 | allowed / drive | 4.11 |
| 50% | three-and-outs | 56% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Wyoming vs. Central Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Central Michigan with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Wyoming vs. Central Michigan?
The model projects Central Michigan by 5.3.
What time is Wyoming vs. Central Michigan and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 1:00 PM ET, at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →