Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UTAH Elo 1976, USU Elo 1446) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -25.9 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: UTAH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors Utah with a 97% win probability.
The model projects Utah by 25.9.
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM on FOX, at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Utah at 97% to win, projecting Utah by 25.9.
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