UTEP vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Michigan gets at UTEP: 12th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 98th at generating havoc. UTEP projects no clear way in against Michigan. Michigan is also 18th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 97th.
How
MICHattacks
UTEP
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
MICH#12 of 138UTEP#98 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
MICH#18 of 138UTEP#97 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MICH#26 of 138UTEP#101 of 138
The two teams
UTEP
UTEP is in year 3 under Scotty Walden. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 1st at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th on first and second down, and they are 137th in the push up front.
UTEP has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#1projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#137projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#137projected
- Offensethrowing it#136projected
Michigan
Michigan is in year 1 under Kyle Whittingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 127th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#6projected
- Offenserunning it#8projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#127projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1698, UTEP Elo 1163 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -32.7 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UTEP132nd36thMICHMICH110th126thUTEPThrough the air
UTEP130th35thMICHMICH120th98thUTEPOn the ground
UTEP109th75thMICHMICH96th112thUTEPStaying on the field
UTEP132nd72ndMICHMICH115th129thUTEPTaking care of it
UTEP68th53rdMICHMICH95th88thUTEP
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#134) | CORE overall | +17.0 (#19) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | +8 / -9 |
| -0.64 | points / drive | 0.78 |
| 4.00 | allowed / drive | 0.90 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 56% |
| -10 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win UTEP vs. Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Michigan with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTEP vs. Michigan?
The model projects Michigan by 32.7.
What time is UTEP vs. Michigan and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET, at Michigan Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →