North Texas vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 1.7 toward 
TXST
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TXST −3 | TXST −4.7 |
| TXST win | 56% | 62% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where North Texas gets at Texas State: 33rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 121st at keeping everything in front of them. Where Texas State gets at North Texas: 6th at running it, against a unit 133rd at defending the run. North Texas is also 22nd at running it, against a unit 55th.
How
UNTattacksTXST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UNT#33 of 138TXST#121 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
UNT#22 of 138TXST#55 of 138
HowTXSTattacksUNT
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
TXST#6 of 138UNT#133 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TXST#17 of 138UNT#131 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
TXST#17 of 138UNT#130 of 138
The two teams
North Texas
North Texas is in year 1 under Neal Brown, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 18th in the push up front. The way in is 133rd at defending the run, and they are 133rd at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
North Texas has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#18projected
- Offenserunning it#22projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#133projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#133projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#131projected
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at running it. The way in is 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −18.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#6projected
- Offensethrowing it#9projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#11projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#121projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1438, UNT Elo 1699 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -4.7 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNT72nd119thTXSTTXST98th100thUNTThrough the air
UNT61st134thTXSTTXST102nd85thUNTOn the ground
UNT68th99thTXSTTXST28th70thUNTStaying on the field
UNT47th118thTXSTTXST18th116thUNTTaking care of it
UNT21st108thTXSTTXST133rd22ndUNT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNT | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#50) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#43) |
| +10 / +4 | offense / defense | +9 / +2 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 2.76 | allowed / drive | 4.15 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 10% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win North Texas vs. Texas State?
Gridpex's model favors Texas State with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Texas vs. Texas State?
The model projects Texas State by 4.7.
What time is North Texas vs. Texas State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET, at Bobcat Stadium (TX).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →