Tulane vs. Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 4.6 toward 
TULN
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  KSU −19.5 | KSU −14.9 |
| KSU win | 90% | 83% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Kansas State gets at Tulane: 48th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 100th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Tulane projects no clear way in against Kansas State. Kansas State is also 52nd at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 100th.
HowKSUattacksTULN
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
KSU#48 of 138TULN#100 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
KSU#52 of 138TULN#100 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
KSU#42 of 138TULN#81 of 138
The two teams
Tulane
Tulane runs it: Will Hall's offenses have been run-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 108th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −26.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tulane has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#108projected
Kansas State
Kansas State is in year 1 under Collin Klein. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 122nd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 119th at staying out of the backfield.
Kansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#11projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#122projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#119projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1684, TULN Elo 1528 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -14.9 (83% to win) — 4.6 points clear of TULN's market line of -19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TULN55th2ndKSUKSU24th105thTULNThrough the air
TULN88th1stKSUKSU79th80thTULNOn the ground
TULN103rd48thKSUKSU8th131stTULNStaying on the field
TULN99th12thKSUKSU2nd131stTULNTaking care of it
TULN21st76thKSUKSU74th109thTULN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TULN | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.8 (#66) | CORE overall | +16.0 (#25) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | +5 / -11 |
| 1.41 | points / drive | 3.40 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 0.00 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulane vs. Kansas State?
Gridpex's model favors Kansas State with a 83% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulane vs. Kansas State?
The model projects Kansas State by 14.9.
What time is Tulane vs. Kansas State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →