Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago BearsMarket
- Book
- -3
- o45.5
- Exchange
- —
- 58% CHI
- Volume
- 38k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Chicago Bears is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -2.8
- Bears
- Win prob
- 59%
- Bears
- Likely range
- -14 to 19
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1538 − 1516 = +0.9 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +0.6 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +2.8 Bears
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1516#17
- FPI rank
- #192026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1538#16
- FPI rank
- #162026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 5 meetings
Bears 2–3- 2025 wk 11Bears at Vikings19–17Bears
- 2025 wk 1Vikings at Bears27–24Vikings
- 2024 wk 15Bears at Vikings12–30Vikings
- 2024 wk 12Vikings at Bears30–27Vikings
- 2023 wk 12Bears at Vikings12–10Bears
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
41 trades · $799Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Thin market — too few trades here to read anything into the split.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 41 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -3| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3 | +0.5 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
12 orders · 31% of the money- Chicago Bears514 @ 0.65$33488×
- Minnesota Vikings436 @ 0.41$17947×
- Minnesota Vikings300 @ 0.40$12032×
- Minnesota Vikings264 @ 0.41$10829×
- Chicago Bears162 @ 0.60$9726×
- Chicago Bears162 @ 0.60$9726×
- Chicago Bears156 @ 0.62$9726×
- Chicago Bears151 @ 0.64$9725×
- Chicago Bears158 @ 0.61$9625×
- Chicago Bears151 @ 0.60$9124×
- Minnesota Vikings174 @ 0.43$7520×
- Chicago Bears99 @ 0.61$6016×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $3.80), largest first, from the last 618 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.58 / 0.59 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.