Ball State vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ball State gets at Liberty: 22nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 99th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Liberty gets at Ball State: 62nd at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 129th at shutting down the ground game. Liberty is also 83rd on first and second down, against a unit 124th.
How
BALLattacks
LIB
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BALL#22 of 138LIB#99 of 138
HowLIBattacksBALL
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
LIB#62 of 138BALL#129 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
LIB#83 of 138BALL#124 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
LIB#86 of 138BALL#124 of 138
The two teams
Ball State
Ball State is in year 2 under Mike Uremovich. The strengths are offensive, led by 22nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at throwing it, and they are 137th at moving the ball on the ground.
Ball State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#22projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#137projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#137projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#137projected
Liberty
Liberty runs it: Jamey Chadwell's offenses have been run-leaning across 8 seasons. The way in is 121st at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 119th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Liberty has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#121projected
- Defenserunning it#119projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#117projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1697, BALL Elo 1112 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -19.5 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BALL112th68thLIBLIB99th129thBALLThrough the air
BALL102nd48thLIBLIB87th123rdBALLOn the ground
BALL87th95thLIBLIB83rd123rdBALLStaying on the field
BALL123rd78thLIBLIB108th66thBALLTaking care of it
BALL68th30thLIBLIB68th30thBALL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BALL | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.5 (#135) | CORE overall | -4.6 (#83) |
| -16 / +6 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 0.27 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 4.67 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 55% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ball State vs. Liberty?
Gridpex's model favors Liberty with a 90% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ball State vs. Liberty?
The model projects Liberty by 19.5.
What time is Ball State vs. Liberty and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET, at Williams Stadium (VA).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →