vs Temple · Wk 3Win prob 61%Model -4.8Schedule & Results
MSUMichigan StateL20-30✓Wk 2vsCECOCentral ConnecticutW63-10✓Wk 3vsTEMTemple-4.861%Wk 4vs
SDSUSan Diego State+10.725%Wk 5@
BALLBall State-10.675%Wk 6vs
BUFBuffalo-14.782%Wk 7@
EMUEastern Michigan0.050%Wk 8vs
WMUWestern Michigan+3.043%Wk 10@
SACSacramento State+5.138%Wk 11vs
MASSMassachusetts-30.999%Wk 12vs
BGSUBowling Green-20.391%Wk 13@
OHIOOhio+4.240%Team Leaders
John Alan RichterPassing448 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT
Connor WalendzakRushing110 yds · 2 TD · 8.5 avg
Adjatay DabbsReceiving8 rec · 135 yds · 3 TD
Isaac ZayTackles19 tackles · 1 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on Toledo
All news →Alessio Milivojevic had a hand in six of Michigan State's eight explosive plays
Cam Edwards and a Toledo Defense Rebuilt From Mercer Up
Roster · 106 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | John Alan Richter | QB | JR | 6'3" | 225 | Gray, GA |
| 7 | Khamoni Robinson | QB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Monroe, NC |
| 11 | Walter Moses | QB | FR | 6'4" | 190 | Perry, OH |
| 13 | Jake DeHaan | QB | JR | 6'2" | 203 | Byron Center, MI |
| 4 | Autavius Ison | RB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 8 | Connor Walendzak | RB | SR | 5'11" | 208 | Perrysburg, OH |
| 20 | Corey Smith | RB | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Milwaukee, WI |
| 22 | CJ Miller | RB | JR | 5'11" | 230 | Gadsden, AL |
| 23 | Noah Sanders | RB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Franklin, MI |
| 27 | Dane Nauman | RB | SO | 6'0" | 210 | Marengo, OH |
| 28 | Kadale Williams | RB | FR | 6'1" | 180 | Jackson, MI |
| 29 | Tanner Rubinstein | FB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Napoleon, OH |
| 1 | Rico Bond | WR | SO | — | 177 | St. Louis, MO |
| 2 | Trenton Jones | WR | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Hastings, FL |
| 3 | Adjatay Dabbs | WR | JR | 6'0" | 170 | Greeneville, TN |
| 5 | Terrell Crosby Jr. | WR | SR | 5'10" | 182 | Saint Petersburg, FL |
| 9 | Kalvin Gilbert Jr. | WR | JR | 6'4" | 181 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 10 | Seth Elchert | WR | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Findlay, OH |
| 12 | Bryson Hammer | WR | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Fremont, OH |
| 13 | Cooper Rusk | WR | SR | 5'10" | 190 | Macedonia, OH |
| 14 | Tashi Braceful | WR | SO | 6'2" | 187 | Southfield, MI |
| 19 | Daryl Barnett Jr. | WR | SO | 6'2" | 195 | Toledo, OH |
| 83 | Omar Mims Jr. | WR | FR | 6'0" | 165 | East St. Louis, IL |
| 85 | Anthony Simpson | WR | SR | 5'11" | 186 | Hartford, CT |
| 43 | Sam Lee | TE | SR | 6'6" | 238 | Toledo, OH |
| 80 | Peyton Strickland | TE | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Goffstown, NH |
| 81 | Ethan Malafa | TE | SR | 6'6" | 250 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 87 | Tucker Kelleher | TE | SO | 6'6" | 225 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 88 | Jacob Newell | TE | SR | 6'4" | 245 | Springfield, OR |
| 50 | Luke Rector | OL | JR | 6'5" | 300 | Valdese, NC |
| 55 | Ibrahim Traore | OL | SR | 6'5" | 297 | Bronx, NY |
| 56 | Jacob Kropchak | OL | SO | 6'4" | 296 | Rochester Hills, MI |
| 58 | Jake Palucki | OL | FR | 6'5" | 270 | Tinley Park, IL |
| 60 | Jake Grimm | OL | SO | 6'4" | 295 | Gahanna, OH |
| 62 | Christian Medlock | OL | JR | 6'5" | 304 | Homewood, IL |
| 63 | Grant Zimmerly | OL | SO | 6'4" | 292 | Perrysburg, OH |
| 65 | Stephen Gales | OL | SR | 6'6" | 290 | Alliance, OH |
| 67 | Cade Wilhelmi | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | Berkley, MI |
| 69 | Dominic Johnson | OL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | Ocala, FL |
| 70 | Nick Thomas | OL | SR | 6'4" | 311 | East Orange, NJ |
| 71 | Matt Hofer | OL | SO | 6'5" | 288 | Valparaiso, IN |
| 73 | Jonathan Harder | OL | SR | 6'4" | 330 | Delaware, OH |
| 74 | Ahmad Carwise | OL | SO | 6'5" | 300 | Piedmont, SC |
| 75 | Preston Dazey | OL | FR | — | — | Massillon, OH |
| 76 | Vincenzo Pizzo | OL | FR | — | — | Saint Clair Shores, MI |
| 78 | Dylan Senda | OL | JR | 6'5" | 303 | Livonia, MI |
| 0 | Andrew Zock | DE | JR | 6'2" | 250 | Citra, FL |
| 2 | Ezra Odinjor | DE | JR | 6'3" | 240 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 21 | Ben Sahakian | DE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Mount Prospect, IL |
| 37 | Desmond Okantey | DE | FR | 6'2" | 242 | Westerville, OH |
| 51 | Zackery Samuel | DE | FR | 6'1" | 251 | Sarasota, FL |
| 53 | Samuel Toniolo | DE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Avon, OH |
| 85 | Josh Lee | DE | SR | 6'6" | 238 | Toledo, OH |
| 90 | Zach Johnson | DE | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Ocala, FL |
| 92 | Tommy Huss | DE | JR | 6'3" | 227 | Bedford, MI |
| 97 | Brian Stovall Jr. | DE | FR | 6'2" | 228 | Romulus, MI |
| 93 | Leonard Sharp | DL | SR | 6'4" | 283 | Bedford, OH |
| 95 | Wayne Peart II | DL | SO | 6'4" | 265 | Pembroke Pines, FL |
| 96 | Nathaniel Chandler | DL | JR | 6'4" | 269 | Smyrna, DE |
| 35 | Bryant Weatherspoon Jr. | DT | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Detroit, MI |
| 41 | Cam Gwinn | DT | FR | 6'2" | 256 | Columbus, OH |
| 43 | Tyrell O'Neal | DT | FR | — | — | Garfield Heights, OH |
| 48 | Jordin Farrow | DT | FR | 6'3" | 292 | Inkster, MI |
| 52 | Lucas Lambert-Pipkin | DT | JR | 6'2" | 285 | Cranberry Township, PA |
| 91 | Laith Shamma | DT | JR | 6'6" | 280 | Ann Arbor, MI |
| 94 | Adrian Love Jr. | DT | FR | 6'2" | 290 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 98 | Micah Fils-Aime | DT | FR | 5'11" | 275 | Naples, FL |
| 99 | Caden Camese | DT | SR | 6'1" | 285 | Bellevue, NE |
| 5 | Damon Ollison II | LB | SR | 6'0" | 224 | Akron, OH |
| 6 | Langston Long | LB | SR | 6'3" | 225 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 10 | Julian Fox | LB | JR | 6'1" | 220 | Cordele, GA |
| 13 | Kari Jackson | LB | SO | 6'1" | 238 | West Bloomfield, MI |
| 19 | Isaac Prince | LB | SR | 6'0" | 215 | Snellville, GA |
| 28 | Sam Smith Jr. | LB | JR | 6'4" | 223 | Delta, OH |
| 29 | Jordan Fox | LB | FR | 5'11" | 223 | Cordele, GA |
| 30 | Hayden Roy | LB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Lyons, GA |
| 31 | Maddox Arnold | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 36 | Nathan Gersh | LB | FR | — | — | Dexter, MI |
| 44 | Isaac Zay | LB | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 1 | Cam Jones | CB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Reading, PA |
| 8 | KJ Thomas | CB | SO | 5'11" | 180 | Conyers, GA |
| 11 | Hyajah Miller | CB | SO | 6'2" | 175 | North Lauderdale, FL |
| 20 | LaDavion Osborn | CB | SR | 6'1" | 183 | Tyler, TX |
| 23 | Israel Petite | CB | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Macedonia, OH |
| 24 | Bo Jacobs | CB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Fairburn, GA |
| 25 | Tyrell Russell | CB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Columbus, OH |
| 38 | Clarence Tucker | CB | FR | — | — | San Diego, CA |
| 3 | Sharard Vaughn III | S | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Maumee, OH |
| 4 | Donovan Watkins | S | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Winnsboro, SC |
| 7 | Armorion Smith | S | SR | 6'1" | 212 | River Rouge, MI |
| 12 | Mo Conteh | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Columbus, OH |
| 15 | Michael-Arinze Ezirim | S | SO | 6'1" | 183 | Dublin, OH |
| 17 | Kaleb Hutchinson | S | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Augusta, GA |
| 22 | Nicholas Thompson | S | JR | 6'2" | 206 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 26 | Tyler Hackenbracht | S | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Massillon, OH |
| 27 | Ziiyahn Blair | S | FR | — | — | Akron, OH |
| 33 | Andrew Fineske | S | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Sylvania, OH |
| 39 | Dylan Hohler | S | JR | 6'4" | 196 | Huron, OH |
| 39 | Anthony Ruggles | PK | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Youngstown, OH |
| 93 | Reice Griffith | PK | SR | 5'11" | 170 | Pace, FL |
| 36 | Emilio Duran | P | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Ottawa Hills, OH |
| 46 | Hunter Probst | P | FR | 6'5" | 210 | Santa Rosa, CA |
| 47 | Markus Meincke | P | JR | 6'7" | 220 | Hamburg |
| 45 | Reece Strittmatter | LS | FR | 6'5" | 200 | Adel, IA |
| 49 | Max Allen | LS | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Holly Springs, NC |
| — | Nathan Gersh | — | — | — | — | — |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Toledo is in year 1 under Mike Jacobs. The strengths are defensive, led by 3rd at closing out passing downs.
Toledo has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#5projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#9projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.47#114
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.94 / 2.26
- Power / stuff (off)
- 0.0% / 26.5%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.1%#82
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.5% / 7.5%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.00#90 | 0.87#3 | 0.61#69 |
| Defense | -0.09#54 | 0.02#55 | 0.02#18 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2858th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0258th
- Offense success rate29%6th
- Defense success rate allowed38%53rd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs28%4th
- Offense success — passing downs29%35th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs44%45th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs22%63rd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness2.399th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.169th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9334th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs4.399th
Trenches
- Offense line yards1.11st
- Defense line yards allowed2.846th
- Offense highlight yards3.596th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.3863rd
- Offense power success0.007th
- Defense power success allowed0.3385th
- Offense stuff rate0.441st
- Defense stuff rate0.2157th
Third down
- Third down conversion13%4th
- Third down distance faced8.96th
- Third down conversion allowed33%60th
- Third down distance forced6.120th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.305th
- Net success rate — second half0.1156th
Drives
- Points per drive2.154th
- Points per drive allowed2.930th
- Average starting field position3065th
- Opponent starting field position3711th
- Available yards gained130%99th
- Available yards allowed62%23rd
- Scoring opportunities per drive70%31st
- Scoring opportunities allowed90%33rd
- Points per scoring opportunity3.063rd
- Points allowed per opportunity3.236th
- Three-and-out rate40%22nd
- Three-and-outs forced0%9th
Roster
- Returning usage56%64th
- Returning EPA22582nd
- Team talent composite55616th
- Recruiting class rank12112th
- Recruiting class points16312th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.363 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 55.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 56.4%
- Over expected
- -1.4
- Fourth down vs peers
- -8
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Toledo is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Toledo in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 8-5 | 6-2 | 62% | 9.2 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 6.2 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 10.7 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 9-5 | 6-3 | 64% | 10.1 | -1.1 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 2020 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 67% | 4.0 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 50% | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.0 | -0.0 |
| 2017 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 9.8 | +1.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 7.6-4.8. Wins the Mid-American in 18%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 22%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 0.8 points since preseason — lost 20-30 to Michigan State against an expected margin of −14, so +3.7 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 22% where the average Mid-American team is 27%.
- The Mid-American takes 0.05 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.6% of seasons, having won their league in 99% of those.
Toledo’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4vs San Diego State1.6
- wk8vs Western Michigan1.5
- wk13at Ohio1.1
- wk3vs Temple1.0
- wk6vs Buffalo0.9
- wk7at Eastern Michigan0.9
Who to root for
Games Toledo is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk5Utah State over Boise State0.3
- wk8East Carolina over Memphis0.3
- wk2UCLA over San Diego State0.3
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.3
- wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.3
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy0.3
Mid-American
0-0 in league play, projected 5.5-2.52 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk8Western Michigan at Toledo26.8
- wk13Toledo at Ohio19.8
- wk6Buffalo at Toledo18.4
- wk12Bowling Green at Toledo17.4
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Toledo is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- GameAbove Sports Bowl17%
- Arizona Bowl11%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl9.9%
- Boca Raton Bowl8.8%
- Cure Bowl8.3%
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl7.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent Toledo a player since 2010 — 42 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Toledo's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.