Scheumann StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BALL 1010
TOL 1646
Projected spread
BALL +25
incl. home edge
Model pick
TOL
97% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
3%
BALL (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BALL Elo 1010, TOL Elo 1646) plus home-field advantage. That projects BALL +25 (3% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelTOL 97% · BALL 3%
Pick: TOL
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
TOL2025 season · national rank shownBALL
415.834th
Total yards / game
271.7134th6.227th
Yards / play
4.5Key matchups · Pro
- BALL pass offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. TOL pass defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge BALL.
- BALL rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. TOL rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge BALL.
- TOL rush offense (0.12 PPA) vs. BALL rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge BALL.
FAQ
Who will win Toledo vs. Ball State?
Gridpex's model favors Toledo with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Toledo vs. Ball State?
The model projects Toledo by 25.0.
What time is Toledo vs. Ball State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Scheumann Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Toledo at 97% to win, projecting Toledo by 25.0.