Toledo vs. Ball State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Toledo gets at Ball State: 24th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 125th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Ball State gets at Toledo: 13th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 54th at keeping everything in front of them. Toledo is also 24th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 125th.
How
TOLattacks
BALL
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TOL#24 of 138BALL#125 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
TOL#24 of 138BALL#125 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
TOL#31 of 138BALL#126 of 138
HowBALLattacksTOL
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BALL#13 of 138TOL#54 of 138
The two teams
Toledo
Toledo is in year 1 under Mike Jacobs. The strengths are defensive, led by 6th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
Toledo has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#6projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#10projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#10projected
Ball State
Ball State is in year 2 under Mike Uremovich. The strengths are offensive, led by 13th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at throwing it, and they are 137th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Ball State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#13projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#137projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#137projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1112, TOL Elo 1568 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL +10.6 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TOL25th131stBALLBALL119th18thTOLThrough the air
TOL54th131stBALLBALL103rd37thTOLOn the ground
TOL70th129thBALLBALL95th65thTOLStaying on the field
TOL64th66thBALLBALL129th40thTOLTaking care of it
TOL75th46thBALLBALL48th108thTOL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 28–21–1 · Toledo has won 4 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| TOL | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.8 (#37) | CORE overall | -23.0 (#133) |
| +2 / -8 | offense / defense | -16 / +7 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 0.27 |
| 2.90 | allowed / drive | 4.67 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 55% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Toledo vs. Ball State?
Gridpex's model favors Toledo with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Toledo vs. Ball State?
The model projects Toledo by 10.6.
What time is Toledo vs. Ball State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Scheumann Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →