Toledo vs. Sacramento State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Toledo gets at Sacramento State: 17th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 68th at generating havoc. Sacramento State projects no clear way in against Toledo. Toledo is also 22nd at throwing it, against a unit 71st.
How
TOLattacks
SAC
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
TOL#17 of 138SAC#68 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
TOL#22 of 138SAC#71 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
TOL#19 of 138SAC#65 of 138
The two teams
Toledo
Toledo is in year 1 under Mike Jacobs. The strengths are defensive, led by 3rd at closing out passing downs.
Toledo has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#5projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#9projected
Sacramento State
Sacramento State is in year 1 under Alonzo Carter. No unit here sits far enough from the national average to build a plan around — nothing to lean on, and nothing obvious to attack.
Sacramento State has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SAC Elo 1466, TOL Elo 1568 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SAC -5.1 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TOL30th41stSACSAC98th28thTOLThrough the air
TOL58th54thSACSAC66th51stTOLOn the ground
TOL66th41stSACSAC97th72ndTOLStaying on the field
TOL67th23rdSACSAC101st47thTOLTaking care of it
TOL95th53rdSACSAC118th88thTOL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TOL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.5 (#39) | CORE overall | -11.0 (#113) |
| +2 / -7 | offense / defense | -9 / +2 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 0.83 |
| 2.90 | allowed / drive | 1.50 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 50% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +18 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Toledo vs. Sacramento State?
Gridpex's model favors Sacramento State with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Toledo vs. Sacramento State?
The model projects Sacramento State by 5.1.
What time is Toledo vs. Sacramento State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Hornet Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →