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Missouri State

Missouri State Bears

Conference USA·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1284#118
SP+
-24.3#132
FPI
-15.9
AP
NR
Nextvs Marshall · Wk 3Win prob 40%Model +3.8
Talent #119 (549.9)Recruiting class #13131% production returning

Team Leaders

Roster · 105 players

FR 32SO 21JR 27SR 25
#PlayerPosClHtWt
2Henry Belin IVQBSR6'3"225
7Elijah LeonardQBSO6'4"220
9Skyler LocklearQBSR5'11"195
12Brett OttensmeyerQBFR6'4"195
15Eian FinkleyQBJR6'2"205
1Jambres DubarRBJR6'0"205
1Breezy DubarRBSR6'0"205
3Iverson YoungRBJR5'9"190
10King DavisRBFR5'8"185
21Josh JoynerRBSO5'8"180
22Ramone Green Jr.RBJR5'9"190
40Connor LairRBSR6'1"225
43Amar'e JohnsonRBFR5'10"195
0Jmariyae RobinsonWRSR6'1"165
6Mekhi MillerWRSR6'1"194
8Isaiah McMorrisWRSO5'11"175
11Makai CopeWRSR6'3"210
13Isaiah MyersWRSR6'4"173
17Brendon McQueenWRSO6'3"190
18Sean ReeseWRSR6'0"190
34Jordan ManuelWRFR6'2"200
42Devin StaleyWRFR6'0"170
81AJ Bell Jr.WRFR5'11"160
82Brycen DorseyWRFR6'0"182
83Amare WhetsellWRFR6'0"180
84Antonio RobinsonWRSR6'3"185
87Witt EdwardsWRSO6'5"225
89Torrin TeagueWRFR6'0"191
46Cash PomeroyTEFR6'2"265
80Michael Osei-BonsuTESR6'4"280
85Dillon HippTESO6'6"245
86James RexroatTESO6'4"235
88Jeron AskrenTESO6'3"230
51Chase MideauOLFR6'3"305
54Matthew GreeneOLJR6'5"285
55Ryan MitchellOLSO6'3"285
66Makhete GueyeOLSR6'6"310
67Ben LiedtkeOLJR6'5"320
69Armend UjkashiOLJR6'1"265
70William Dixon IIIOLSR6'3"280
71King LargeOLFR6'4"316
72Isaiah VillanuevaOLSR6'3"302
73Myles EwellOLSO6'6"315
74Julius DumasOLFR6'4"306
75Logan ScrivnerOLSO6'4"305
76Santiago CastilloOLFR6'7"340
77Sebastian EspinozaOLJR6'6"300
78Brayden ThompsonOLFR6'8"320
79Stephen MeitzOLFR6'6"305
5Kellen LindstromDESO6'5"240
10Jalile ElliottDESO6'3"230
22Grayson CutchlowDESO6'3"230
30Caden WiestDEJR6'4"265
49Dylan BrooksDESR6'4"245
56Jayden McGeeDEFR6'4"225
59Maurice Jones Jr.DEFR6'3"205
92Josh LukusaDESR6'5"260
94Breylon McCullerDEFR6'5"235
96Blessing IgbinedionDEJR6'4"283
11Tim Brantley Jr.DLSR6'1"275
44Malachi MadisonDLSR6'3"290
52Kaden JonesDLJR6'4"250
57Gilles TchioDLJR6'3"310
90Brandon HightowerDLFR6'2"280
97Joshua DavisDLJR6'3"310
98Cam GrayDLFR6'2"265
99Markell ChapmanDLJR6'1"303
0Jared LloydLBSR6'3"240
15Martavis BlackmonLBJR6'1"225
21Jashawn CooperLBSO6'0"215
24Caleb OlabodeLBFR6'2"205
31Cooper RoyLBJR6'3"225
32Hieko MaloneLBSO6'1"210
35Austin YelderLBJR6'0"223
38Stratton ShufeltLBJR6'2"230
41Deion ThomasLBFR6'3"205
45Royal WeberLBFR6'2"206
48Jedrick Russell Jr.LBFR6'3"208
6Navonn BarrettCBJR6'1"190
7Malik GanawayCBSR6'1"190
8Joel KpassouCBSR5'10"170
12Joel BoamahCBJR5'11"180
20Floyd WilliamsCBJR6'1"175
23Gionni McBrideCBFR6'3"175
25Camron WilliamsCBSO6'0"175
26Darryon TaylorCBSR6'0"180
2Antonio SmithSJR6'3"197
3Khalil AndersonSSR5'11"200
9Dylan DixsonSSR6'1"180
13Haydon CastonSFR6'1"193
14Jerrick MartinSFR6'4"195
16J.J. O'NealSSR6'2"180
19Xavian MichelSSO6'0"180
27Devin RutherfordSSO5'11"180
28Joseph ArnoldSFR6'1"170
29Christian FordSJR6'0"180
33Anthony MattisonSJR5'9"190
37Josiah TurnerSFR5'11"180
39Rory ButlerSFR6'0"175
36Yousef ObeidPKJR6'0"180
37Josh DealPKJR6'0"200
25Stewart McDonaldPSO6'1"195
47Andrew KallasLSJR6'3"227
50Tim ColemanLSSO5'11"220
65Malakai LewisLSFR6'3"192

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
24.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
32.0
scoring defense
Differential
-8.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
67.0#138
Yards / play
1.7#138
Passing yards / game
30.0#136
Rushing yards / game
37.0#136
First downs / game
4.0#138
3rd down %
10.0%#133
4th down %
50.0%#67
Time of possession
16:57#137
Defense
Yards allowed / game
505.0#131
Yards / play allowed
5.9#107
Pass yards allowed / game
269.0#117
Rush yards allowed / game
236.0#128
3rd down % allowed
50.0%#116
Sacks
2#81
Tackles for loss
4#114
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-2#109
Takeaways
1#88
Giveaways
3#95
Penalties / game
8.0#100
Penalty yards / game
41.0#45

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Missouri State is in year 1 under Casey Woods. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 136th at keeping a clean pocket.

Missouri State has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.

Projected strengths

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #2
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #137
    projected
  • Offensesacks and tackles for loss
    #136
    projected
  • Defensethrowing it
    #124
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
6.0 – 6.0
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
5.0
of 10 games
Bowl odds
63%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
81%
vs Sam Houston
Toughest
10%
vs SMU

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 6-6 (28%)Bowl eligible 63% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBSkyler Locklear
+5.3 EPA
RBJambres Dubar, Connor Lair +2
+3.8 EPA
WRMakai Cope, Mekhi Miller +2
+2.5 EPA
TEDillon Hipp
+1.8 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBSkyler Locklear
~$576K
EPA +5.30.160/play33 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off-0.293rd#134
Def0.3112th#121
Explosiveness
Off0.671st#138
Def1.0879th#30
Field position
Off75.186th#20
Def58.199th#2
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off0.003rd#134
Def4.8012th#122
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 3
Margin 0

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
-0.204th#133
Off · rush
-0.373rd#134

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.373rd#134
Def0.1528th#99
Passing
Off-0.204th#133
Def0.4517th#115

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
1.90#130
2nd-level / open-field
0.17 / 0.00
Power / stuff (off)
0.0% / 25.0%
Havoc — total (def)
12.4%#109
Havoc — front 7 / DB
6.7% / 5.6%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.30
Def0.24
Pass downs
Off-0.26
Def0.46

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.38#134-0.31#1300.01#127
Defense0.23#1230.29#1020.32#68

Elo Trajectory

@Texas A&MFinal
Elo rating 1385 → 1268-117 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play-0.243rd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.3513th
  • Offense success rate17%1st
  • Defense success rate allowed58%1st

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs26%2nd
  • Offense success — passing downs0%1st
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs62%3rd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs50%7th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness0.937th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.172nd
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9335th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs0.001st

Trenches

  • Offense line yards1.64th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.92nd
  • Offense highlight yards0.007th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.620th
  • Offense power success0.5022nd
  • Defense power success allowed1.023rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.2610th
  • Defense stuff rate0.109th

Third down

  • Third down conversion18%6th
  • Third down distance faced6.558th
  • Third down conversion allowed54%12th
  • Third down distance forced6.838th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.305th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.491st

Drives

  • Points per drive0.007th
  • Points per drive allowed4.410th
  • Average starting field position2532nd
  • Opponent starting field position422nd
  • Available yards gained9%1st
  • Available yards allowed78%9th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive30%1st
  • Scoring opportunities allowed100%16th
  • Points per scoring opportunity0.005th
  • Points allowed per opportunity4.416th
  • Three-and-out rate80%1st
  • Three-and-outs forced9%15th

Roster

  • Returning usage19%19th
  • Returning EPA98.949th
  • Team talent composite55014th
  • Recruiting class rank1315th
  • Recruiting class points1525th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
-0.292#134 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
-0.197#133
Rush EPA/play
-0.375#134
Explosiveness
0.665#138
Pts/opportunity
0.00#134
Success rate
16.0%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.178 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disciplined defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.307#121 · bottom 20%
Havoc rate (total)
12.4%#109
Front-7 havoc
6.7%
DB havoc
5.6%
Big play rate allowed
1.080#30
Success rate allowed
55.2%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

24.0 PPG offense, 32.0 allowed — -8.0 margin/game
Points per game
24.0
Points allowed/game
32.0
Scoring margin/game
-8.0
Turnover margin
+0won 3 · lost 3
Production returning
31%
Talent rank (247)
#119

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE3thEXPLOSIVENESS0thFINISHING3thFIELD POS86thDEFENSE12thHAVOC21th50th100th
Offense
3th
Explosiveness
0th
Finishing
3th
Field Pos
86th
Defense
12th
Havoc
21th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-14.5
#126
Offense
-10.0
#126
Defense
+4.6
#109
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 10 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive0.004.36
Starting field positionown 24.9own 42.4
Available yards9.4%77.5%
Scoring opportunities30.0%100.0%
Points per opportunity0.004.36
Three-and-out rate80.0%9.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Missouri State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Missouri State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Northern IllinoisSP+ -22.3
Off EPA/play -0.330Def EPA/play +0.332Elo 1266
Match
98%
WisconsinSP+ -1.5
Off EPA/play -0.105Def EPA/play +0.349Elo 1475
Match
91%
ClemsonSP+ +5.2
Off EPA/play -0.490Def EPA/play +0.376Elo 1541
Match
90%
UTEPSP+ -24.3
Off EPA/play -0.307Def EPA/play +0.508Elo 1163
Match
89%
Fresno StateSP+ -7.6
Off EPA/play -0.356Def EPA/play +0.506Elo 1449
Match
89%
Western MichiganSP+ -4.2
Off EPA/play -0.037Def EPA/play +0.236Elo 1534
Match
87%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.0-0.0
20257-65-3
54%
5.3+1.7
20248-46-2
67%
7.1+0.9
20234-73-5
36%
4.6-0.6
20225-63-5
45%
3.3+1.7
20218-46-2
67%
0.1+7.9
20205-55-2
50%
0.0+5.0
20191-101-7
9%
0.0+1.0
20184-72-6
36%
0.0+4.0
20173-82-6
27%
0.0+3.0

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.0%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 4.3-7.8. Wins the Conference USA in 2.2%.

If they finish with…

0.9%
2 losses
0.2%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

down 0.0 points since preseason — lost 0-50 to Texas A&M against an expected margin of −42, so −7.6 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 0.9% where the average Conference USA team is 0.3%.
  • The Conference USA takes 0.02 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

Missouri State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk13vs Liberty0.0
  • wk10at Florida International0.0
  • wk6at Western Kentucky0.0
  • wk3vs Marshall0.0
  • wk12at Jacksonville State0.0
  • wk11vs New Mexico State0.0

Who to root for

Games Missouri State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk5Charlotte over Memphis0.0
  • wk2North Dakota State over Air Force0.0
  • wk3Ball State over Liberty0.0
  • wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.0
  • wk6Sam Houston over Liberty0.0
  • wk2Arizona State over Texas A&M0.0
The full playoff picture →

Conference USA

0-0 in league play, projected 3.0-5.08 of 10 by title odds
2.2%
Wins the Conference USA
6.1%
Reaches the title game

The Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk13Liberty at Missouri State6.8
  • wk4Missouri State at SMU6.7
  • wk10Missouri State at Florida International5.3
  • wk8Missouri State at Delaware5.3

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →

If not the playoff, then

26%
Bowl eligible
26%
Placed in a bowl
0.0%
In the playoff
74%
Season over in November

Missouri State is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • Hawai'i Bowl6.8%
  • New Orleans Bowl6.3%
  • 68 Ventures Bowl5.1%
  • Armed Forces Bowl2.6%
  • Boca Raton Bowl1.8%
  • Xbox Bowl1.5%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.