Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Kennesaw State gets at Missouri State: 35th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 108th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Missouri State gets at Kennesaw State: 2nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 56th at keeping everything in front of them.
How
KENNattacks
MOST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KENN#35 of 138MOST#108 of 138
HowMOSTattacksKENN
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MOST#2 of 138KENN#56 of 138
The two teams
Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State is in year 2 under Jerry Mack. The strengths are offensive, led by 35th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 122nd at turning trips inside the 40 into points, and they are 115th at defending the run.
Kennesaw State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#122projected
- Defenserunning it#115projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#113projected
Missouri State
Missouri State is in year 1 under Casey Woods. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 136th at keeping a clean pocket.
Missouri State has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#2projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#136projected
- Defensethrowing it#124projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1284, KENN Elo 1331 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -6.7 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
KENN63rd107thMOSTMOST138th13thKENNThrough the air
KENN85th117thMOSTMOST136th15thKENNOn the ground
KENN12th128thMOSTMOST136th12thKENNStaying on the field
KENN35th116thMOSTMOST133rd1stKENNTaking care of it
KENN68th88thMOSTMOST95th53rdKENN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 (#97) | CORE overall | -14.5 (#126) |
| -3 / +4 | offense / defense | -10 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State?
Gridpex's model favors Missouri State with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State?
The model projects Missouri State by 6.7.
What time is Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State and what channel is it on?
Wed, Oct 14, 7:30 PM ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →