Sam Houston vs. Missouri State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Sam Houston gets at Missouri State: 58th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 108th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Missouri State gets at Sam Houston: 2nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 57th at keeping everything in front of them. Missouri State is also 81st at throwing it, against a unit 135th.
How
SHSUattacks
MOST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
SHSU#58 of 138MOST#108 of 138
HowMOSTattacksSHSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MOST#2 of 138SHSU#57 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
MOST#81 of 138SHSU#135 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MOST#89 of 138SHSU#135 of 138
The two teams
Sam Houston
Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at throwing it, and they are 135th at surviving second and twelve.
Sam Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#135projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
Missouri State
Missouri State is in year 1 under Casey Woods. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 136th at keeping a clean pocket.
Missouri State has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#2projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#136projected
- Defensethrowing it#124projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1284, SHSU Elo 1164 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -13.9 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SHSU101st107thMOSTMOST138th79thSHSUThrough the air
SHSU18th117thMOSTMOST136th56thSHSUOn the ground
SHSU135th128thMOSTMOST136th115thSHSUStaying on the field
SHSU67th116thMOSTMOST133rd85thSHSUTaking care of it
SHSU31st88thMOSTMOST95th118thSHSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.7 (#117) | CORE overall | -14.5 (#126) |
| -6 / +5 | offense / defense | -10 / +5 |
| 1.75 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 4.36 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 80% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Sam Houston vs. Missouri State?
Gridpex's model favors Missouri State with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sam Houston vs. Missouri State?
The model projects Missouri State by 13.9.
What time is Sam Houston vs. Missouri State and what channel is it on?
Tue, Oct 27, 8:00 PM ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →