Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SMU 1852
MOST 1328
Projected spread
SMU -25.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
97% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
97%
SMU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (SMU Elo 1852, MOST Elo 1328) plus home-field advantage. That projects SMU -25.1 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMOST 3% · SMU 97%
Pick: SMU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
MOST2025 season · national rank shownSMU
393.464th
Total yards / game
417.030th6.039th
Yards / play
6.3Key matchups · Pro
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge MOST.
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge SMU.
FAQ
Who will win Missouri State vs. SMU?
Gridpex's model favors SMU with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Missouri State vs. SMU?
The model projects SMU by 25.1.
What time is Missouri State vs. SMU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this SMU at 97% to win, projecting SMU by 25.1.