Skip to content
Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic Owls

American Athletic·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1189#130
SP+
-12.2#111
FPI
-15.3
AP
NR
Nextvs Florida International · Wk 3Win prob 81%Model -13.8
Talent #98 (593.4)Recruiting class #13068% production returning

Roster · 115 players

FR 21SO 20JR 26SR 48
#PlayerPosClHtWt
7Jordan MagwoodQBSO6'0"205
10Caden VeltkampQBSR6'5"236
12Jeremiah DaoudQBFR6'3"210
15Michael ValentinoQBJR6'1"210
18Drew DevillierQBJR6'5"230
5Leonard FarrowRBSR5'10"195
20Joshua HarriottRBSR5'10"185
21Ethan ErvinRBSO6'1"195
22Brady Tillman IIIRBSR6'0"190
28Kaden Shields-DuttonRBJR5'11"215
33Almari BrownRBJR5'7"171
34Germanuel TanelusRBSR5'10"210
0Branden HochWRSO6'3"200
2Kelby ValsinWRSR6'2"195
3Tucker HollowayWRSR6'2"190
4Antojuan WoodyWRSR5'10"180
6RJ Garcia IIWRSR6'0"180
8Easton MesserWRSR5'9"190
9Dominique HenryWRSR5'11"190
13Jahmari Powell-WonsonWRJR5'11"195
16Elijah WestWRFR6'3"194
17Nicsaint Joseph Jr.WRFR6'2"165
26Chase HanningWRSR6'3"200
80Grayson GibsonWRFR6'3"195
81Dyson SimsWRSO5'8"160
82Dveyoun Bonwell-WitteWRFR6'2"200
83Spencer MartinWRFR6'3"185
1AJ JohnsonTESR6'4"255
11Brooks JohnsonTESR6'5"235
86Owen PollockTEFR6'4"245
87Peter CannonTEFR6'4"235
88Marcus VinsonTESR6'4"250
93Maika KurkowskiTESO6'5"235
50Owen CheathamOLFR6'6"265
51Aedyn BuchananOLFR6'6"265
52Logan HusbandOLSO6'4"295
55Rain BanickOLSO6'5"300
57Ja'Kavion NonarOLSR6'8"315
58Aiden JonesOLJR6'4"315
60Aqil Meredith-SmithOLSO6'3"310
62Vincent FiacableOLSR6'4"320
63JJ RochfordOLFR6'3"315
64Vincent ForneyOLJR6'5"275
65Braden CunninghamOLJR6'6"315
67Alejandro SchmittOLFR6'6"305
70Jaylen GambleOLSO6'4"290
71Landon RapkiewiczOLSO6'4"315
72Ovie DubreOLSR6'4"325
73Kortez WinslowOLSR6'5"315
74Ben GallowayOLSR6'4"310
75Mauricio HindsOLJR6'5"305
76Aiden FordOLSO6'0"290
77Keon RoheOLJR6'7"310
78Carson OsmusOLJR6'6"303
1CJ Doggette Jr.DLSR6'2"277
2Wilky DenaudDLSR6'3"285
14Tycoolhill LumanDLJR6'3"264
56Gabriel BirnbaumDLJR6'3"290
62Enyce SledgeDLSR6'3"320
91Lebron EdmondDLJR6'4"305
94Corey ClarkDLSR6'4"310
95Nimari BrantleyDLSO6'2"280
97Samuel BenoitDLSO6'3"288
98Blake BurrisDLSR6'5"320
99Nate LovelaceDLFR6'0"280
13Earl Miller Jr.DTSR6'4"310
6Leon Hart Jr.LBSR6'0"215
7Khmari JohnsonLBSR6'1"220
17Char'Quez LeeLBJR6'2"215
18Joseph Sipp Jr.LBSR6'0"220
21Nate FischerLBJR6'2"230
28Zyere HortonLBSR6'3"225
35Tito NunezLBJR6'1"220
40Josiah FarmerLBSO5'11"195
42Larry SpringLBFR6'1"190
43Hector ChavezLBSO5'10"215
8Chris Tooley IIICBSR6'0"180
0Damon AllenDBSO6'1"200
3Derrick RogersDBSR6'1"175
4Damarius McGheeDBSR6'0"183
5Deshaun BatisteDBSR6'3"258
9Jonathan BaxDBSR6'3"245
10Josh RobertsDBSO6'4"220
11Gavench MarcelinDBJR6'3"260
12Jay CrableDBSR6'3"240
15Tyclean LumanDBJR6'4"280
16Wallace Foster IVDBJR5'10"175
18Jackson ForteDBSR6'2"260
19Tyson RooksDBSR6'4"215
20Bo Simpson-NealyDBSR5'10"190
23JK JohnsonDBSR6'0"185
24Ahlston WareDBSR6'0"185
25Kam HerringDBJR6'1"180
26Amar ReynoldsDBJR6'0"190
27Travis JacksonDBFR5'11"180
30Justin WeatherallDBFR5'11"190
31Kenyon GarnerDBJR6'3"238
32Sean WilliamsDBFR6'0"180
33Ja'Cari JacksonDBFR5'11"190
34Brenden GuidrozDBFR6'2"175
36Darius SmithDBSO5'10"180
38Christopher Tank Jr.DBFR6'2"180
39RJ LampkinDBSR6'1"190
44Roman Garcia IVDBSR6'2"260
45Thomas JacksonDBJR5'10"170
55Alexander KocherDBSR6'5"250
89Nick ToussaintDBSR6'3"240
22Jayden SweeneySSR5'11"190
37Dominick DavisSSO6'2"180
41Collin RogersPKSR6'4"215
96Lliam PetersonPKSO6'1"180
49Alex GracePJR6'4"200
91Reed ChandleyPJR6'1"205
45Walker AdkinsonLSSR6'2"210
46Blake ThomasLSFR5'11"190

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
29.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
48.0
scoring defense
Differential
-18.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
396.0#71
Yards / play
4.4#123
Passing yards / game
276.0#42
Rushing yards / game
120.0#103
First downs / game
25.0#33
3rd down %
50.0%#35
4th down %
57.1%#65
Time of possession
28:24#98
Defense
Yards allowed / game
624.0#137
Yards / play allowed
9.3#137
Pass yards allowed / game
343.0#133
Rush yards allowed / game
281.0#134
3rd down % allowed
55.6%#131
Sacks
1#104
Tackles for loss
4#114
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-2#109
Takeaways
1#88
Giveaways
3#95
Penalties / game
9.0#116
Penalty yards / game
88.0#129

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 126th on early downs defensively.

Florida Atlantic has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #4
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Defenserunning it
    #134
    projected
  • Defensefirst and second down
    #126
    projected
  • Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points
    #126
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
5.9 – 5.1
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
4.9
of 9 games
Bowl odds
61%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
81%
vs Florida International
Toughest
26%
vs Army

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

12345678910
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 6-5 (28%)Bowl eligible 61% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WREaston Messer, Dom Henry +2
+8.7 EPA
QBCaden Veltkamp
+7.2 EPA
RBBrady Tillman, Kaden Shields-Dutton +2
-0.6 EPA
TEAntonio Johnson
-0.8 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBCaden Veltkamp
~$594K
EPA +7.20.185/play39 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1534th#91
Def0.641st#136
Explosiveness
Off1.2549th#71
Def1.568th#127
Field position
Off75.186th#20
Def69.480th#29
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.2054th#64
Def6.562nd#135
Turnovers
Won 1Lost 3
Margin -2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.0514th#119
Off · rush
0.3580th#29

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.3580th#29
Def0.671st#136
Passing
Off0.0513th#120
Def0.617th#129

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.65#31
2nd-level / open-field
0.95 / 0.05
Power / stuff (off)
100.0% / 5.0%
Havoc — total (def)
10.3%#125
Havoc — front 7 / DB
5.9% / 4.4%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.01
Def0.72
Pass downs
Off0.50
Def0.35

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.06#72-0.35#1350.86#30
Defense0.35#1320.65#1331.08#130

Elo Trajectory

@FloridaFinal
Elo rating 1285 → 1212-73 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1126th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.623rd
  • Offense success rate40%33rd
  • Defense success rate allowed54%6th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs41%23rd
  • Offense success — passing downs38%64th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs59%4th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs36%24th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.132nd
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.69th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9639th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.626th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.726th
  • Defense line yards allowed3.49th
  • Offense highlight yards0.037th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed2.66th
  • Offense power success0.8063rd
  • Defense power success allowed1.023rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.1176th
  • Defense stuff rate0.107th

Third down

  • Third down conversion50%66th
  • Third down distance faced5.582nd
  • Third down conversion allowed56%9th
  • Third down distance forced8.677th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.1711th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.1023rd

Drives

  • Points per drive2.154th
  • Points per drive allowed6.01st
  • Average starting field position2527th
  • Opponent starting field position3132nd
  • Available yards gained49%54th
  • Available yards allowed87%3rd
  • Scoring opportunities per drive70%31st
  • Scoring opportunities allowed100%16th
  • Points per scoring opportunity3.063rd
  • Points allowed per opportunity6.02nd
  • Three-and-out rate30%45th
  • Three-and-outs forced9%15th

Roster

  • Returning usage65%75th
  • Returning EPA26792nd
  • Team talent composite59329th
  • Recruiting class rank1306th
  • Recruiting class points1586th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Run-first offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.154#91 · below avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.045#120
Rush EPA/play
+0.353#29
Explosiveness
1.255#71
Pts/opportunity
4.20#64
Success rate
40.0%

Rush efficiency edge: 0.308 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Coverage-heavy defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.644#136 · bottom 20%
Havoc rate (total)
10.3%#125
Front-7 havoc
5.9%
DB havoc
4.4%
Big play rate allowed
1.560#127
Success rate allowed
57.5%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

29.5 PPG offense, 48.0 allowed — -18.5 margin/game
Points per game
29.5
Points allowed/game
48.0
Scoring margin/game
-18.5
Turnover margin
-2won 1 · lost 3
Production returning
68%
Talent rank (247)
#98

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE34thEXPLOSIVENESS49thFINISHING54thFIELD POS86thDEFENSE1thHAVOC9th50th100th
Offense
34th
Explosiveness
49th
Finishing
54th
Field Pos
86th
Defense
1th
Havoc
9th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-12.1
#119
Offense
-1.9
#82
Defense
+10.1
#133
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 10 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive2.106.00
Starting field positionown 24.7own 30.6
Available yards48.7%87.4%
Scoring opportunities70.0%100.0%
Points per opportunity3.006.00
Three-and-out rate30.0%9.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
64.8%
Expected, given the spots
54.7%
Over expected
+10.1
Fourth down vs peers
+19
Fourth down vs the model
+33
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Florida Atlantic is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Florida Atlantic in 2026

by EPA/play distance
UABSP+ -16.0
Off EPA/play +0.113Def EPA/play +0.529Elo 1411
Match
94%
OhioSP+ -16.4
Off EPA/play +0.118Def EPA/play +0.493Elo 1318
Match
92%
Arkansas StateSP+ -15.1
Off EPA/play +0.125Def EPA/play +0.491Elo 1353
Match
92%
MarshallSP+ -14.4
Off EPA/play -0.075Def EPA/play +0.644Elo 1389
Match
89%
Western KentuckySP+ -13.1
Off EPA/play -0.033Def EPA/play +0.835Elo 1327
Match
87%
UL MonroeSP+ -33.2
Off EPA/play -0.154Def EPA/play +0.646Elo 1071
Match
86%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -11.2, #96 of 1282016: -22.8, #121 of 1282017: +6.5, #45 of 1302018: +2.2, #53 of 1302019: +5.7, #42 of 1302020: -7.2, #88 of 1242021: -2.0, #80 of 1302022: -7.5, #91 of 1312023: -21.6, #128 of 1332024: -14.3, #115 of 1342025: -13.1, #103 of 1362026: -12.1, #119 of 138
20152026
Now -12.1 · #119 of 138Best +6.5 in 2017Worst -22.8 in 2016

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-11-0
50%
1.0+0.0
20254-83-5
33%
4.3-0.3
20243-91-7
25%
5.4-2.4
20234-83-5
33%
3.9+0.1
20225-74-4
42%
7.0-2.0
20215-73-5
42%
6.4-1.4
20205-44-2
56%
4.5+0.5
201911-38-1
79%
11.2-0.2
20185-73-5
42%
6.0-1.0
201711-39-0
79%
10.8+0.2

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.2%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.5-6.5. Wins the American Athletic in 1.3%.

If they finish with…

43%
1 loss
5.3%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 43%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 1.0 points since preseason — lost 21-66 to Florida against an expected margin of −24, so −21.3 against the number.

  • At 1 loss they are 43% where the average American Athletic team is 52%.
  • The American Athletic takes 0.34 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.2% of seasons, having won their league in 98% of those.

Florida Atlantic’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk11at Tulsa0.5
  • wk7at Army0.5
  • wk2vs Navy0.5
  • wk13at East Carolina0.5
  • wk10vs UTSA0.4
  • wk12vs South Florida0.4

Who to root for

Games Florida Atlantic is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk12SMU over Notre Dame0.1
  • wk6Sam Houston over Liberty0.1
  • wk6Ohio State over Maryland0.1
  • wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.1
  • wk5Boise State over Utah State0.1
  • wk4Wake Forest over Louisville0.1
The full playoff picture →

American Athletic

0-0 in league play, projected 3.0-5.011 of 14 by title odds
1.3%
Wins the American Athletic
3.5%
Reaches the title game

The American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 33% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk11Florida Atlantic at Tulsa3.8
  • wk2Navy at Florida Atlantic3.4
  • wk7Florida Atlantic at Army3.4
  • wk13Florida Atlantic at East Carolina3.3

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →

If not the playoff, then

49%
Bowl eligible
35%
Placed in a bowl
0.2%
In the playoff
64%
Season over in November

Florida Atlantic is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 13% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Armed Forces Bowl7.2%
  • Birmingham Bowl5.5%
  • Fenway Bowl5.4%
  • Military Bowl3.3%
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl3.2%
  • Xbox Bowl2.5%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 16 have sent Florida Atlantic a player since 2010 — 49 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Florida Atlantic's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
St. Thomas AquinasFL90
Miami CentralFL50
Booker T. WashingtonFL40
Glades CentralFL40
American HeritageFL30
Cardinal GibbonsFL30
Miami ColumbusFL30
Miami NorthwesternFL30
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.