Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida Atlantic gets at North Texas: 57th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 133rd at stuffing runs at the line. Where North Texas gets at Florida Atlantic: 15th at running it, against a unit 134th at defending the run. Florida Atlantic is also 40th at throwing it, against a unit 107th.
How
FAUattacks
UNT
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
FAU#57 of 138UNT#133 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
FAU#40 of 138UNT#107 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FAU#4 of 138UNT#69 of 138
HowUNTattacksFAU
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
UNT#15 of 138FAU#134 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
UNT#13 of 138FAU#125 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
UNT#38 of 138FAU#126 of 138
The two teams
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 126th on early downs defensively.
Florida Atlantic has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#126projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#126projected
North Texas
North Texas is in year 1 under Neal Brown, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th in the push up front. The way in is 133rd at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 132nd at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
North Texas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#6projected
- Offenserunning it#15projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#133projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1694, FAU Elo 1189 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -5.7 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FAU123rd96thUNTUNT68th137thFAUThrough the air
FAU42nd84thUNTUNT62nd133rdFAUOn the ground
FAU103rd75thUNTUNT64th134thFAUStaying on the field
FAU35th109thUNTUNT52nd131stFAUTaking care of it
FAU95th14thUNTUNT31st88thFAU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida Atlantic leads 8–7 · North Texas has won 3 straight · 53% have been one-possession games
| FAU | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.1 (#119) | CORE overall | -1.4 (#77) |
| -2 / +10 | offense / defense | +6 / +8 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 1.78 |
| 6.00 | allowed / drive | 5.78 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas?
Gridpex's model favors North Texas with a 64% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas?
The model projects North Texas by 5.7.
What time is Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET, at DATCU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →