Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 7.3 toward 
FAU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | FAU −6.5 | FAU −13.8 |
| FAU win | 70% | 81% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Florida International gets at Florida Atlantic: 56th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 135th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Florida Atlantic gets at Florida International: 33rd at throwing it, against a unit 87th at defending the pass. Florida Atlantic is also 30th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 66th.
How
FIUattacksFAU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 54% this season, 2 games
FIU1.24#56 of 138FAU1.72#135 of 138
HowFAUattacksFIU
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · 22% this season, 2 games
FAU+0.34#33 of 138FIU+0.19#87 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 2 games in
FAU39%#30 of 138FIU20%#66 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 22% this season, 2 games
FAU3.77#71 of 138FIU3.90#106 of 138
The two teams
Florida International
Florida International is in year 2 under Willie Simmons. The way in is 127th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 126th at moving the ball on the ground.
Florida International has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line20.3%#127 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground33%#126 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points2.85#117 of 138
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 24th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 138th at defending the run, and they are 137th at holding teams to field goals.
Florida Atlantic has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.29#24 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air49%#28 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve39%#30 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.55#138 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points6.08#137 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down57%#135 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1226, FIU Elo 1409 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -13.8 (81% to win) — 7.3 points clear of FAU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FIU66th135thFAUFAU121st35thFIUThrough the air
FIU7th109thFAUFAU14th50thFIUOn the ground
FIU114th136thFAUFAU133rd32ndFIUStaying on the field
FIU85th90thFAUFAU22nd42ndFIUTaking care of it
FIU104th46thFAUFAU74th46thFIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida Atlantic leads 16–6 · 18% have been one-possession games
| FIU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 (#68) | CORE overall | -9.2 (#107) |
| -5 / -6 | offense / defense | +0 / +9 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 2.84 |
| 1.77 | allowed / drive | 4.27 |
| 9% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic?
Gridpex's model favors Florida Atlantic with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic?
The model projects Florida Atlantic by 13.8.
What time is Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET, at FAU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →