Chapman StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TLSA 1110
FAU 1178
Projected spread
TLSA -0.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
TLSA
51% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
51%
TLSA (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TLSA Elo 1110, FAU Elo 1178) plus home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -0.5 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelFAU 49% · TLSA 51%
Pick: TLSA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
FAU2025 season · national rank shownTLSA
445.722nd
Total yards / game
398.557th5.765th
Yards / play
5.3Key matchups · Pro
- TLSA rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
- TLSA pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. TLSA pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge FAU.
FAQ
Who will win Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa?
Gridpex's model favors Tulsa with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa?
The model projects Tulsa by 0.5.
What time is Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Chapman Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Tulsa at 51% to win, projecting Tulsa by 0.5.