Rice vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida Atlantic gets at Rice: 4th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 138th at keeping everything in front of them. Rice projects no clear way in against Florida Atlantic. Florida Atlantic is also 40th at throwing it, against a unit 123rd.
How
FAUattacks
RICE
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FAU#4 of 138RICE#138 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
FAU#40 of 138RICE#123 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
FAU#46 of 138RICE#114 of 138
The two teams
Rice
Rice is in year 2 under Scott Abell. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 133rd at staying on schedule through the air.
Rice has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#138projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#133projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#133projected
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 126th on early downs defensively.
Florida Atlantic has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#126projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1212, RICE Elo 1107 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -12.6 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
RICE114th137thFAUFAU123rd105thRICEThrough the air
RICE135th133rdFAUFAU42nd96thRICEOn the ground
RICE20th134thFAUFAU103rd86thRICEStaying on the field
RICE60th131stFAUFAU35th102ndRICETaking care of it
RICE118th88thFAUFAU95th88thRICE
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| RICE | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.6 (#120) | CORE overall | -12.1 (#119) |
| -10 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Rice vs. Florida Atlantic?
Gridpex's model favors Florida Atlantic with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Rice vs. Florida Atlantic?
The model projects Florida Atlantic by 12.6.
What time is Rice vs. Florida Atlantic and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at FAU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →