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Golden Knights at Hurricanes
NHL

Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Vegas Golden Knights
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Final/OTTV ABC, CBC·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in overtime, Seth Jarvis scoring at 3:56. The Hurricanes came back from two goals down. The Golden Knights led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Seth Jarvis's goal at 3:56 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were VGK 26, CAR 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Carter Hart stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.3 goals below expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 23 of 26 (.885). Three stars: 1. Seth Jarvis (1 G), 2. Jordan Staal (1 G), 3. Logan Stankoven (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    L. Stankoven1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
VGKVGK121911401326
CARCAR08073813426

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. VGK
    B. Howden(12)
    M. Marner (16)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    13:33

2nd period

  1. VGK
    B. Howden(13)
    I. Barbashev (8), N. Hanifin (7)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    7:23

3rd period

  1. CAR
    L. Stankoven(10)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    10:20
  2. CAR
    M. Jankowski(1)
    W. Carrier (4), E. Robinson (4)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +35 ptsVideo
    2-2
    12:46
  3. CAR
    J. Staal(4)PPG
    S. Gostisbehere (5), A. Svechnikov (5)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +30 ptsVideo
    2-3
    15:25
  4. VGK
    M. Stone(6)
    M. Marner (17), T. Hertl (7)
    backhandxG 0.38win prob +41 ptsVideo
    3-3
    18:39

Overtime

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(4)PPG
    S. Gostisbehere (6), S. Aho (4)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +48 ptsVideo
    3-4
    3:56

Penalties

VGK 8 PIM·CAR 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:29VGKDylan Coghlan · Trippingdrawn by Seth Jarvis2 min
  • 14:44VGKColton Sissons · Roughingdrawn by K'Andre Miller2 min
  • 17:42CARJordan Staal · Holdingdrawn by Pavel Dorofeyev2 min

2nd

  • 5:16CARK'Andre Miller · Interferencedrawn by Brett Howden2 min
  • 13:55CARJordan Martinook · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

3rd

  • 15:00VGKserved by I. Barbashev · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 16:31CARJackson Blake · Interferencedrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

OT

  • 3:17VGKTomas Hertl · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Staal2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalVGK goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Seth Jarvis, OT 3:56 — CAR 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.24J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.18T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.15J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.13M. Jankowski · Goal · xG 0.12S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.12L. Stankoven · Goal · xG 0.12J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.10L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.09S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.08A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.07T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.06S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.06A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.06J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.06J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.06S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.05T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.05S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.05E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.05J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.03S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.03L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.01K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.00E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.00K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 2.7 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

VGKvsCAR
3.03 G
All situations
4 G2.7
2.33 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.70 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
VGK54%46%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.89 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

VGKvsCAR
26
Shots on goal
26
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/4
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
25
Hits
46
25
Blocked shots
11
12
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Vegas Golden Knights skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27S. TheodoreD000+110.04110—28:30
15N. HanifinD011+100.00140—24:15
93M. MarnerR022+130.08100—22:37
9J. EichelC000000.021104222:22
5J. LauzonD000-100.01320—21:08
4R. AnderssonD000020.08020—21:00
61M. StoneR101+130.65020—19:57
16P. DorofeyevR000010.07000—19:55
71W. KarlssonC000+120.200104419:07
49I. BarbashevL011050.43230—16:55
52D. CoghlanD000000.02122—16:31
48T. HertlC011+100.001122916:19
21B. HowdenC202+130.71130015:35
10C. SissonsC000000.003123314:22
26N. DowdC000020.352106212:06
22C. SmithR000020.31400—09:35
55K. KolesarR000020.08410—09:07
3B. McNabbD000000.00000—05:39
Vegas Golden Knights goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
79C. Hart(L)26224.8462.68-1.3263:32

Series

CAR leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).