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Wild at Stars
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
2
Dallas Stars
▸4
FinalTV ESPN, FDSNNO·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Minnesota Wild 4-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 4:02 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 54% to 70%. Expected goals were close — MIN 3.0, DAL 3.1; shots on goal were MIN 30, DAL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jesper Wallstedt stopped 28 of 31 (.903); Jake Oettinger stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (28 saves, .933), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brock Faber (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger28 saves, .933
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Duchene1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    B. Faber2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN11201018230
DALDAL1917216432

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    W. Johnston(1)
    N. Lundkvist (1), O. Bäck (1)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:58
  2. MIN
    B. Faber(1)
    Q. Hughes (2), K. Kaprizov (3)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:33

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Duchene(1)PPG
    M. Rantanen (1), M. Heiskanen (2)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:02

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(2)
    N. Lundkvist (2), M. Duchene (1)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-3
    7:09
  2. MIN
    B. Faber(2)
    J. Eriksson Ek (2), Q. Hughes (3)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-3
    9:47
  3. DAL
    W. Johnston(2)EN
    J. Hryckowian (1), E. Lindell (1)
    backhandxG 0.50win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-4
    19:10

Penalties

MIN 16 PIM·DAL 14 PIM

1st

  • 4:17DALMikko Rantanen · High stickingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min
  • 11:07DALJamie Benn · Hookingdrawn by Matt Boldy2 min
  • 11:07MINZach Bogosian · Interferencedrawn by Arttu Hyry2 min

2nd

  • 2:16MINNick Foligno · Elbowingdrawn by Nils Lundkvist2 min
  • 4:02DALMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 4:02DALMatt Duchene · Roughingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 4:02MINJoel Eriksson Ek · Roughingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 6:17MINJared Spurgeon · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 7:45DALMiro Heiskanen · Trippingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 19:57MINMarcus Foligno · Roughingdrawn by Thomas Harley2 min
  • 19:57DALThomas Harley · Interferencedrawn by Marcus Foligno2 min
  • 19:57MINMarcus Foligno · Roughingdrawn by Thomas Harley2 min

3rd

  • 16:16DALserved by M. Bourque · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 18:39MINserved by Danila Yurov · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 19:46MINRyan Hartman · Slashingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalMIN goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, 2nd 4:02 — DAL 54% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.50A. Hyry · Missed · xG 0.21M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.20J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.17J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.14M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.13R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.12W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.11J. Hryckowian · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.09W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.09M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.08W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.07S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.07W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.06S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.06E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.05C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.05E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.04W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.01L. Bichsel · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.01S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bourque · Missed · xG 0.01S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.01T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 3.1 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsDAL
3.02 G
All situations
3 G3.1
2.42 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN58%42%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.97 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsDAL
30
Shots on goal
32
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/4
Power play
2/5
16
Penalty minutes
14
35
Hits
27
16
Blocked shots
14
12
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43Q. HughesD022+210.16000—28:35
7B. FaberD202+260.59000—26:42
97K. KaprizovL011+220.1901010024:43
12M. BoldyL000+150.99100—24:22
14J. Eriksson EkC011+240.085125321:35
38R. HartmanR000-110.011126019:07
25J. BrodinD000-200.01040—17:06
46J. SpurgeonD000-100.00022—16:49
90M. JohanssonL000010.06200—16:21
91V. TarasenkoR000-130.36210—15:01
5J. MiddletonD000000.00110—13:01
47M. McCarronC000-110.192205712:52
10B. BrinkR000-110.00510—12:27
24Z. BogosianD000-100.00102—11:04
22D. YurovR000-110.133006710:42
17M. FolignoL000020.17814—10:19
71N. FolignoL000-120.021126008:37
13Y. TreninC000000.00300003:02
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30J. Wallstedt(L)31283.9032.55-0.4559:04

Series

MIN leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).