Wild at Golden Knights 5-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸5

Vegas Golden Knights

FinalTV ESPN, FDSNNO·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Vegas Golden Knights 5-2. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marcus Foligno's goal at 11:35 of the first period, which took the Wild's chances from 60% to 75%. Expected goals were close — MIN 2.7, VGK 2.8; shots on goal were MIN 17, VGK 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Adin Hill stopped 12 of 16 (.750), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kirill Kaprizov (2 G, 1 A), 2. Matt Boldy (1 G, 1 A), 3. Noah Hanifin (1 G).

Three stars

★
K. Kaprizov2 G, 1 A
★★
M. Boldy1 G, 1 A
★★★
N. Hanifin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	310	13	14	517
VGK	010	111	111	232

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

M. Boldy(3)
K. Kaprizov (3), J. Brodin (1)
wristxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
9:56
M. Foligno(1)
R. Hartman (2)
wristxG 0.20win prob +16 ptsVideo
2-0
11:35
M. Zuccarello(1)
M. Johansson (1)
wristxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
3-0
17:15

2nd period

K. Kaprizov(1)
M. Boldy (1)
snapxG 0.09win prob +6 ptsVideo
4-0
3:59
N. Hanifin(1)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.04win prob +4 ptsVideo
4-1
12:04

3rd period

T. Hertl(2)
A. Pietrangelo (2), B. Saad (2)
wristxG 0.14win prob +7 ptsVideo
4-2
2:26
K. Kaprizov(2)EN
Unassisted
wristxG 0.52win prob +1 ptsVideo
5-2
17:34

Penalties

0 PIM·

2 PIM

3rd

8:56Brayden McNabb · Holdingdrawn by Gustav Nyquist2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: VGK

Biggest swing: Marcus Foligno, 1st 11:35 — MIN 60% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.8 xG · 55 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 2.7 xG · 35 att VGK

2 G · 2.8 xG · 55 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.74 G
All situations: 2 G2.8; 1.94 G
Even strength: 2 G2.7; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

34%66%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.86 – 2.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

17
Shots on goal: 32; 41%
Faceoffs: 59%; 0/1
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 2; 37
Hits: 30; 30
Blocked shots: 13; 12
Giveaways: 15; 7
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
7B. FaberD	0	0	0	+3	0	0.01	0	3	—	26:21
25J. BrodinD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.03	1	1	—	25:15
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	+3	1	0.01	1	2	—	21:40
12M. BoldyL	1	1	2	+3	2	0.64	1	2	50	20:49
5J. MiddletonD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.06	1	2	—	20:17
97K. KaprizovL	2	1	3	+2	4	0.70	2	4	—	19:55
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	0	0	+3	3	0.33	3	3	41	19:14
38R. HartmanR	0	1	1	-1	3	0.31	2	2	53	17:20
17M. FolignoL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.34	12	0	—	16:43
41G. NyquistR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	—	16:35
89F. GaudreauC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	2	1	27	14:49
36M. ZuccarelloR	1	0	1	0	1	0.15	2	1	—	14:30
90M. JohanssonL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.12	2	1	—	13:23
8Z. BuiumD	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	—	12:45
24Z. BogosianD	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	1	—	12:12
13Y. TreninC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	6	4	0	10:29
23M. RossiC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	50	09:27
15J. BrazeauR	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	2	—	08:26

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)	32	30	2	.938	2.76	+0.76	60:00

Series

VGK leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

3rd

Box score