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Senators at Jets
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
3
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
FinalTV TSN3, TSN5·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Adam Lowry's goal at 4:19 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 70% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.6 to 2.5; shots on goal were OTT 23, WPG 46. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 42 of 46 (.913), 0.8 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 20 of 23 (.870). Three stars: 1. Pierre-Luc Dubois (2 G), 2. Andrew Copp (2 A), 3. Ryan Dzingel (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    P. Dubois2 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    A. Copp2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    R. Dzingel1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT081629323
WPGWPG114322010446

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    P. Dubois(8)
    B. Wheeler (22), L. Stanley (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:10

2nd period

  1. WPG
    A. Lowry(8)
    A. Copp (17)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    4:19
  2. OTT
    R. Dzingel(8)
    C. Brown (10)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    4:48
  3. WPG
    P. Dubois(9)PPG
    A. Copp (18), N. Ehlers (22)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    8:38
  4. WPG
    K. Connor(18)
    M. Scheifele (30), N. Ehlers (23)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    16:12

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(9)PPG
    R. Dzingel (4), M. Reilly (17)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +3 pts
    2-4
    10:25
  2. OTT
    C. Brown(10)
    A. Anisimov (6), E. Dadonov (4)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +6 pts
    3-4
    16:51

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·WPG 8 PIM

1st

  • 5:15WPGserved by M. Perreault · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 7:56WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · High stickingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min
  • 17:50WPGPaul Stastny · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min

2nd

  • 6:39OTTBrady Tkachuk · Slashingdrawn by Mathieu Perreault2 min
  • 11:16OTTConnor Brown · Hookingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
  • 18:50OTTBrady Tkachuk · Elbowingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min

3rd

  • 8:31WPGLogan Stanley · Roughingdrawn by Chris Tierney2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalOTT goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Adam Lowry, 2nd 4:19 — WPG 70% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.43M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.24A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.21P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.17N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.16A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.16P. Dubois · Goal · xG 0.12K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.12J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.11M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.10B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.09A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.09T. Poolman · On goal · xG 0.09M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.08P. Dubois · Goal · xG 0.08K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.08K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lowry · Goal · xG 0.07N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.07B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.06P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.06D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.05T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.05K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.04A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.04K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.04K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.04P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.03D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.03M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.03B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.03T. Poolman · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.02T. Poolman · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.02P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.01T. Poolman · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01T. Poolman · Missed · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.01N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Poolman · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG4 G · 3.6 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsWPG
2.53 G
All situations
4 G3.6
1.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
1.11 G
Power play
1 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT40%60%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 3.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsWPG
23
Shots on goal
46
33%
Faceoffs
67%
1/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
32
Hits
21
21
Blocked shots
9
9
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000020.03400—28:07
28C. BrownR112+150.47122—21:19
5M. ReillyD011-210.03120—19:59
7B. TkachukL000-110.343142019:23
2A. ZubD000-110.16540—17:45
9J. NorrisC101-120.130103917:39
22N. ZaitsevD000+110.05120—17:23
10R. DzingelC112+110.17210017:21
19D. BathersonR000-120.26300—16:33
55B. CoburnD000+110.26150—15:57
18T. StützleC000-210.05000015:10
13N. PaulL000-110.012105015:05
63E. DadonovL011+100.00100—14:21
71C. TierneyC000-210.082002214:10
51A. AnisimovC011+120.420004313:14
3J. BrownD000-100.00500—11:38
62C. BishopC000+100.000002011:00
59A. FormentonL000010.09120—09:30
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)46424.9133.18-0.8258:27

Season series

WPG leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).