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Jets at Senators
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
2
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV TSN3, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-2. The Senators came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evgenii Dadonov's goal at 10:10 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 83%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.4, OTT 2.3; shots on goal were WPG 26, OTT 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.7 goals below expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (2 G), 2. Thomas Chabot (2 A), 3. Connor Brown (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Brown1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG2701405226
OTTOTT2707210424

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(19)PPG
    J. Morrissey (17), M. Scheifele (33)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +8 pts
    1-0
    5:00
  2. WPG
    N. Ehlers(18)
    D. Forbort (8), P. Dubois (9)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    8:25
  3. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(13)PPG
    J. Norris (12), T. Chabot (21)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    11:03
  4. OTT
    C. Brown(14)
    C. Tierney (12), E. Brannstrom (5)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    18:38

3rd period

  1. OTT
    E. Dadonov(12)
    T. Chabot (22), J. Norris (13)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +31 pts
    2-3
    10:10
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(14)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.20win prob +8 pts
    2-4
    16:12

Penalties

WPG 11 PIM·OTT 17 PIM

1st

  • 4:08OTTArtem Zub · Hookingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 8:32WPGLogan Stanley · Fightingdrawn by Joshua Brown5 min
  • 8:32OTTJoshua Brown · Fightingdrawn by Logan Stanley5 min
  • 9:57WPGNeal Pionk · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min

2nd

  • 6:30OTTJoshua Brown · Slashingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min
  • 12:26OTTErik Brannstrom · Hookingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 17:00OTTTim Stützle · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min
  • 19:04WPGNikolaj Ehlers · Slashingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min

3rd

  • 7:03OTTMichael Amadio · Holdingdrawn by Neal Pionk2 min
  • 14:22WPGAndrew Copp · Roughingdrawn by Chris Tierney2 min
  • 14:22OTTChris Tierney · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalWPG goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Evgenii Dadonov, 3rd 10:10 — OTT 52% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.20B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.20D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.17C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.16E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.16A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.15E. Dadonov · Goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.13E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.12A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.10C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.10A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.08N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.06C. Brown · Goal · xG 0.06E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.05C. White · On goal · xG 0.03J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.01M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00C. White · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 2.3 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsOTT
2.42 G
All situations
4 G2.3
1.01 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
1.41 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG52%48%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.41 – 2.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsOTT
26
Shots on goal
24
62%
Faceoffs
38%
1/5
Power play
1/2
11
Penalty minutes
17
24
Hits
25
9
Blocked shots
22
12
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD011010.10200—25:14
55M. ScheifeleC011-210.121005723:40
81K. ConnorL101-240.37100—23:00
4N. PionkD000-130.12522—20:02
24D. ForbortD011-210.03210—19:53
9A. CoppC000-210.101028019:51
25P. StastnyC000+130.401005019:42
27N. EhlersL101050.32002—18:34
13P. DuboisC011000.001007017:45
22M. AppletonC000030.34010017:02
3T. PoolmanD000030.16200—15:58
2D. DeMeloD000-100.00000—15:12
64L. StanleyD000000.01115—12:08
85M. PerreaultC000000.00200011:47
17A. LowryC000000.003106411:08
11N. ThompsonC000000.001205609:57
23T. LewisC000000.11110009:03
12J. HarkinsC000010.2600010007:14
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)24204.8332.32-1.6857:44

Season series

WPG leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).