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Senators at Jets
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Winnipeg Jets
2
FinalTV SNW, SN360·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tim Stützle's goal at 5:11 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 75% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were OTT 23, WPG 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 27 of 29 (.931); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tim Stützle (3 G), 2. Filip Gustavsson (27 saves, .931), 3. Mark Scheifele (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Stützle3 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    F. Gustavsson27 saves, .931
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT2507211423
WPGWPG01018111229

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    C. Brown(20)
    V. Mete (4), S. Pinto (4)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    10:13
  2. OTT
    T. Stützle(10)
    A. Zub (11)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    11:29

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Appleton(10)
    M. Scheifele (38)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    0:55

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(11)
    C. Brown (13), S. Pinto (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    5:11
  2. WPG
    M. Scheifele(20)
    B. Wheeler (27), D. Forbort (9)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +5 pts
    3-2
    19:07
  3. OTT
    T. Stützle(12)EN
    C. Brown (14)
    backhandxG 0.77
    4-2
    19:54

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·WPG 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:05OTTVictor Mete · Hookingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
  • 16:48OTTEvgenii Dadonov · Hookingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min

3rd

  • 17:06WPGMason Appleton · Interferencedrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 19:27WPGPaul Stastny · Interferencedrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalOTT goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Tim Stützle, 3rd 5:11 — OTT 75% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.24K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.24M. Appleton · Goal · xG 0.15T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.15B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.13A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.09P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.09M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.08P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.08A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.08B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.07J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.06M. Perreault · Missed · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.06P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.06A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.06M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.06K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.06K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.05T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.04A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.04P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.03V. Heinola · On goal · xG 0.03A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.03A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.02K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.02D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01V. Heinola · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01J. Harkins · Missed · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.00B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.00V. Heinola · On goal · xG 0.00B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.00A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG2 G · 2.4 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsWPG
3.13 G
All situations
2 G2.4
2.33 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT50%50%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsWPG
23
Shots on goal
29
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
28
18
Blocked shots
18
6
Giveaways
15
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2A. ZubD011-110.03200—26:08
26E. BrannstromD000-110.03110—24:49
22N. ZaitsevD000000.00330—24:37
98V. MeteD011+120.04022—23:30
13N. PaulL000040.120103318:15
9J. NorrisC000-120.291405616:21
7B. TkachukL000-210.15410—16:05
36C. WhiteC000-110.031105015:59
28C. BrownR123+320.38000—15:57
63E. DadonovL000000.29002—15:56
19D. BathersonR000-200.08000—15:12
57S. PintoC022+300.030107515:07
18T. StützleC303+351.28210014:29
71C. TierneyC000000.000005011:56
48J. Bernard-DockerD000+220.05020—11:53
10R. DzingelC000010.24100010:34
85V. AbramovL000000.05000—09:48
52O. AlsingD000+110.05110—09:24
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)29272.9312.35+0.3560:00

Season series

WPG leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).