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Senators at Jets
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
3
Winnipeg Jets
▸6
FinalTV NHLN, CBC·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Ottawa Senators 6-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Paul Stastny's goal at 15:45 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 57% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.3 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 21, WPG 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Marcus Hogberg stopped 32 of 37 (.865), 2.1 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Paul Stastny (1 G, 2 A), 2. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 G, 1 A), 3. Nick Paul (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    P. Stastny1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    N. Paul1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT093804321
WPGWPG16112420638

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    N. Ehlers(3)PPG
    N. Pionk (4), A. Lowry (1)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    14:03

2nd period

  1. OTT
    E. Dadonov(1)
    N. Paul (2), E. Gudbranson (1)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    4:04
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(4)
    B. Wheeler (3), M. Scheifele (4)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    8:18
  3. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(2)
    J. Norris (3), A. Watson (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    11:14
  4. OTT
    N. Paul(2)
    A. Anisimov (1), M. Reilly (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    14:23

3rd period

  1. WPG
    A. Copp(1)
    P. Stastny (1), N. Ehlers (3)
    backhandxG 0.30win prob +25 pts
    3-3
    2:24
  2. WPG
    P. Stastny(1)PPG
    B. Wheeler (4), M. Scheifele (5)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +34 pts
    3-4
    15:45
  3. WPG
    A. Copp(2)
    P. Stastny (2), D. DeMelo (1)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +8 pts
    3-5
    16:55
  4. WPG
    M. Scheifele(3)EN
    K. Connor (5), B. Wheeler (5)
    backhandxG 0.42
    3-6
    17:51

Penalties

OTT 11 PIM·WPG 9 PIM

1st

  • 6:04OTTMicheal Haley · Fightingdrawn by Nathan Beaulieu5 min
  • 6:04WPGNathan Beaulieu · Fightingdrawn by Micheal Haley5 min
  • 12:28OTTMike Reilly · Trippingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 14:35WPGDerek Forbort · Holdingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min

2nd

  • 5:28WPGLogan Stanley · Trippingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

3rd

  • 10:27OTTErik Gudbranson · Interferencedrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 14:11OTTDerek Stepan · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalOTT goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Paul Stastny, 3rd 15:45 — WPG 57% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.43A. Copp · Goal · xG 0.30A. Copp · Goal · xG 0.21P. Stastny · Goal · xG 0.17M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.17K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.13P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.12B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.11A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.11N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.11A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.10N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.10K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.10N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.09B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.08K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.07M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.07A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.07A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.06P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.05J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.05P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.04A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.04D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.04M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.03A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.02L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.02K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.00T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG6 G · 3.3 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsWPG
1.73 G
All situations
5 G3.3
1.63 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.10 G
Power play
2 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT29%71%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.69 – 2.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsWPG
21
Shots on goal
38
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/2
Power play
2/3
11
Penalty minutes
9
29
Hits
20
14
Blocked shots
14
9
Giveaways
6
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-230.08120—24:14
22N. ZaitsevD000000.00220—22:03
44E. GudbransonD011000.00232—20:31
28C. BrownR000020.13000—19:29
15D. StepanC000-110.162226117:52
7B. TkachukL101030.313005017:43
5M. ReillyD011+100.00212—17:15
24C. WolaninD000+120.16010—17:13
19D. BathersonR000-120.39000—17:01
9J. NorrisC011000.001004216:53
13N. PaulL112020.041006716:32
71C. TierneyC000-100.000105716:08
63E. DadonovL101-140.38300—15:33
51A. AnisimovC011020.050102015:22
3J. BrownD000-100.00310—14:37
16A. WatsonL011000.004003313:47
38M. HaleyL000000.00305—07:39
23C. PaquetteC000-100.00200005:31
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1M. Hogberg(L)37325.8652.89-2.1159:28

Season series

WPG leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).