Jets at Oilers 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Winnipeg Jets

Edmonton Oilers

▸2

FinalTV SNW, TSN3·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Winnipeg Jets 2-1. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 13:21 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 1.9 to 1.7; shots on goal were WPG 25, EDM 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Laurent Brossoit stopped 19 of 21 (.905); Mikko Koskinen stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (2 G), 2. Tyson Barrie (2 A), 3. Mathieu Perreault (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. McDavid2 G
★★
T. Barrie2 A
★★★
M. Perreault1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	06	112	07	125
EDM	04	211	06	221

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

C. McDavid(19)
D. Nurse (14), T. Barrie (25)
snapxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
0-1
3:53
M. Perreault(7)
N. Thompson (1), T. Lewis (3)
deflectedxG 0.13win prob +19 pts
1-1
12:43
C. McDavid(20)
Z. Kassian (3), T. Barrie (26)
deflectedxG 0.05win prob +20 pts
1-2
13:21

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

14:59Derek Forbort · Interferencedrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

4:53Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Trippingdrawn by Neal Pionk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

100%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, 2nd 13:21 — EDM 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.7 xG · 30 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.9 xG · 37 att EDM

2 G · 1.7 xG · 30 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.91 G
All situations: 2 G1.7; 1.71 G
Even strength: 2 G1.6; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 67 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

55%45%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.92 – 1.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 21; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 18
Hits: 29; 11
Blocked shots: 12; 13
Giveaways: 12; 5
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4N. PionkD	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	4	0	—	27:18
55M. ScheifeleC	0	0	0	-2	3	0.21	2	2	0	17	23:51
44J. MorrisseyD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.21	1	0	0	—	23:51
24D. ForbortD	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	0	2	—	22:47
26B. WheelerR	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	22:19
25P. StastnyC	0	0	0	-2	0	0.09	1	0	0	25	21:16
2D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	1	1	0	—	18:21
27N. EhlersL	0	0	0	0	2	0.23	0	1	0	—	17:46
81K. ConnorL	0	0	0	0	2	0.27	0	0	0	—	17:46
9A. CoppC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	100	15:50
13P. DuboisC	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	1	0	31	14:31
22M. AppletonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.11	1	1	0	0	14:12
3T. PoolmanD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	12:57
17A. LowryC	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	3	0	0	53	12:40
64L. StanleyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	—	10:54
85M. PerreaultC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.44	2	0	0	100	08:15
11N. ThompsonC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	07:38
23T. LewisC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.12	2	0	0	0	07:27

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30L. Brossoit(L)	21	19	2	.905	1.68	-0.32	58:21

Season series

EDM leads 7-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers

2nd period

1st

2nd

Box score