| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| GT | 3 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (GT Elo 1611, SYR Elo 1402) plus home-field advantage. That projects GT -10.8 (79% to win) — 6.7 points of value on SYR versus the market line of -17.5.
GT up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Syracuse 16, Georgia Tech 41.
Yes — the model's pick (GT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had GT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 R.Collins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GT17 fumbled by #10 R.Collins at GT17 forced by #95 J.Moore recovered by GT #8 J.Boyd at GT17, End Of Play
(11:55) Shotgun #10 H.King pass complete short right to #17 J.Beetham caught at SU13, for 21 yards to the SU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:05, 1ST DOWN #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 M.Nichols, LS: #49 R.Thomas)
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 R.Collins pass complete deep right to #2 J.Cook II caught at GT37, for 41 yards to the GT34 (#6 R.Shelley), 1ST DOWN
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