Sat, Sep 27, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 3 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 25 |
| USM | 14 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1181, JXST Elo 1613) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM +14.9 (14% to win) — 19.9 points of value on JXST versus the market line of -5.
USM up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Jacksonville State 25, Southern Miss 42.
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had JXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Caden Creel pass intercepted Ian Foster return for 49 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
Caden Creel run for 73 yds to the USM 2 for a 1ST down
Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the USM 1
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