M. M. Roberts StadiumClosing line: USM -5 · USM covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 3 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 25 |
| USM | 14 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
Team stats
JXSTthis game · better side highlightedUSM
390
Total yards
379128
Passing yards
152262
Rushing yards
22721
First downs
258-16 · 50%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USM 1181
JXST 1613
Projected spread
USM +14.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
86% to win
Market spread
USM -5
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
19.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
14%
USM · market 63%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1181, JXST Elo 1613) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM +14.9 (14% to win) — 19.9 points of value on JXST versus the market line of -5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USM (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USM 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge JXST.
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge JXST.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. JXST pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge USM.
Drive-by-drive
JXST 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →USM 5/13 scoring drives
USMPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTFUM1 pl, -4 yds· own 29Q1
USMTD4 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USM up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
USM went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss?
Jacksonville State 25, Southern Miss 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had JXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.