Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JXSTTeam statsUSM
- Q4 0:23JXSTCam Cook 8 Yd Run (Caden Creel Run for Two-Point Conversion)25–42
- Q4 1:27USMIan Foster 49 Yd Interception Return (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)17–42
- Q4 7:23JXSTCaden Creel 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–35
- Q3 1:55USMCarl Chester 13 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)11–35
- Q3 4:33JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 4 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Caden Creel Run for Two-Point Conversion)11–28
- Q3 5:52USMKadinn Morris 6 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–28
- Q2 0:05USMBraylon Braxton 6 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–21
- Q1 0:45JXSTGarrison Rippa 35 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 6:38USMJeffery Pittman 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:14USMJeffery Pittman 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCaden Creel 9/17, 109 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushCaden Creel 23 CAR, 161 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCam Cook 4 REC, 77 YDS
- PassBraylon Braxton 13/22, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeffery Pittman 18 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTychaun Chapman 1 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:52JXST +26%
Reed Harradine punt for 34 yds
- Q3 4:33JXST +9%
Caden Creel pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 4 yds for a TD (C. Creel Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q3 5:52USM +6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 6 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
- Q3 7:49USM +5%
PENALTY USM Illegal Snap (Posey,Jeramie) 5 yards from JSU37 to JSU42. NO PLAY
- Q3 1:49USM +5%
Caden Creel run for 8 yds to the JXST 33
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss?
Jacksonville State 25, Southern Miss 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| JXST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 390 | Total yards | 377 |
| 128 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 262 | Rushing yards | 225 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 13/22 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-53 | Penalties | 7-51 |
| 30:58 | Possession | 29:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:43 USM punt on 4th & 3 at USM 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:23JXSTCam Cook 8 Yd Run (Caden Creel Run for Two-Point Conversion)25–42
- Q4 1:27USMIan Foster 49 Yd Interception Return (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)17–42
- Q4 7:23JXSTCaden Creel 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–35
- Q3 1:55USMCarl Chester 13 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)11–35
- Q3 4:33JXSTBrock Rechsteiner 4 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Caden Creel Run for Two-Point Conversion)11–28
- Q3 5:52USMKadinn Morris 6 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–28
- Q2 0:05USMBraylon Braxton 6 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)3–21
- Q1 0:45JXSTGarrison Rippa 35 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 6:38USMJeffery Pittman 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:14USMJeffery Pittman 1 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1181, JXST Elo 1613 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +14.9 (18% to win) — 19.9 points clear of JXST's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#99) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#86) |
| -4 / +7 | offense / defense | -6 / +1 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -12 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →