| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| UTAH | 14 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTAH Elo 1887, CIN Elo 1644) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -12.1 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UTAH up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Cincinnati 14, Utah 45.
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTAH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep left to #4 C.Allen caught at Cin39, for 88 yards to the UTA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:35, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
(01:55) #31 M.Fletcher punt 50 yards to the UTA25 #28 M.Carvalho return 75 yards to the Cin00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:36 #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Dampier pass complete short right to #9 R.Davis caught at Cin18, for 34 yards to the Cin00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05, 1ST DOWN #17 D.Curtis kick attempt good (H: #92 O.Phillips, LS: #44 L.Castor)
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