Cincinnati vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CINTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 3:25UTAHByrd Ficklin 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–45
- Q3 1:36UTAHMana Carvalho 75 Yd Punt Return (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–38
- Q3 2:26UTAHCreed Whittemore 11 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–31
- Q3 10:35CINCyrus Allen 88 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:19UTAHNaQuari Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–24
- Q2 4:23UTAHDillon Curtis 33 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 1:01UTAHWayshawn Parker 39 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:53CINBrendan Sorsby 22 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:05UTAHRyan Davis 34 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrendan Sorsby 11/33, 221 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTawee Walker 7 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecCyrus Allen 2 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDevon Dampier 16/31, 213 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushWayshawn Parker 17 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Davis 8 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:53CIN +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 22 yards gain to the UTA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:01UTAH +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Parker rush middle for 39 yards gain to the Cin00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 7:05UTAH +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Dampier pass complete short right to #9 R.Davis caught at Cin18, for 34 yards to the Cin00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 10:35CIN +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep left to #4 C.Allen caught at Cin39, for 88 yards to the UTA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:19UTAH +5%
No Huddle #21 N.Rogers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Cin00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Cincinnati vs. Utah?
Cincinnati 14, Utah 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| CIN | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 427 | Total yards | 480 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 213 |
| 206 | Rushing yards | 267 |
| 18 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 11/33 | Comp/Att | 16/31 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 6.9 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-60 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 19:58 | Possession | 40:02 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:55 UTAH punt on 4th & 10 at CIN 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:25UTAHByrd Ficklin 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–45
- Q3 1:36UTAHMana Carvalho 75 Yd Punt Return (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–38
- Q3 2:26UTAHCreed Whittemore 11 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–31
- Q3 10:35CINCyrus Allen 88 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)14–24
- Q2 1:19UTAHNaQuari Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–24
- Q2 4:23UTAHDillon Curtis 33 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 1:01UTAHWayshawn Parker 39 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:53CINBrendan Sorsby 22 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:05UTAHRyan Davis 34 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1887, CIN Elo 1644 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -12.1 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#129 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #45 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| CIN | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#50) | CORE overall | +29.1 (#7) |
| +12 / +5 | offense / defense | +19 / -10 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 3.52 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 1.62 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →