App State vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsTROY
- Q4 10:22APPKameron Bryant 3 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher Kick)53–14
- Q4 13:35APPMarcus Cox 1 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher PAT failed)46–14
- Q3 4:40APPTaylor Lamb 16 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher Kick)40–14
- Q3 12:41APPMarcus Cox 33 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher Kick)33–14
- Q2 0:01TROYTEAM Safety26–14
- Q2 9:44TROYChandler Worthy 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Ryan Kay Kick)24–14
- Q2 9:56APPMarcus Cox 2 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher Kick)24–7
- Q1 2:08APPOlawale Dada 20 Yd Fumble Return (Bentlee Critcher Kick)17–7
- Q1 2:58APPBentlee Critcher 37 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:04APPMalachi Jones 59 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Bentlee Critcher Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:23TROYBrandon Burks 5 Yd Run (Ryan Kay Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTaylor Lamb 9/16, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMarcus Cox 16 CAR, 123 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMalachi Jones 1 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrandon Silvers 20/30, 156 YDS, 2 INT
- RushBrandon Burks 6 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrey Page 2 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:23TROY +19%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
- Q1 9:04APP +17%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 59 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
- Q1 2:08APP +15%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 4 yards Brandon Silvers fumbled, forced by Osvaldo Sombo, recovered by AppSt Olawale Dada, return for 20 yds, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
- Q2 9:56APP +11%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
- Q3 12:41APP +10%
Marcus Cox run for 33 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
- Q2 9:44TROY +9%
Bentlee Critcher kickoff for 64 yds, Chandler Worthy return for 99 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Troy?
App State 53, Troy 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
| APP | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 551 | Total yards | 308 |
| 110 | Passing yards | 229 |
| 441 | Rushing yards | 79 |
| 24 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 9/16 | Comp/Att | 27/40 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 8.2 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-52 | Penalties | 11-89 |
| 31:14 | Possession | 28:33 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:22 TROY punt on 4th & 2 at TROY 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:22APPKameron Bryant 3 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher Kick)53–14
- Q4 13:35APPMarcus Cox 1 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher PAT failed)46–14
- Q3 4:40APPTaylor Lamb 16 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher Kick)40–14
- Q3 12:41APPMarcus Cox 33 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher Kick)33–14
- Q2 0:01TROYTEAM Safety26–14
- Q2 9:44TROYChandler Worthy 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Ryan Kay Kick)24–14
- Q2 9:56APPMarcus Cox 2 Yd Run (Bentlee Critcher Kick)24–7
- Q1 2:08APPOlawale Dada 20 Yd Fumble Return (Bentlee Critcher Kick)17–7
- Q1 2:58APPBentlee Critcher 37 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 9:04APPMalachi Jones 59 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Bentlee Critcher Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:23TROYBrandon Burks 5 Yd Run (Ryan Kay Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1099, APP Elo 1226 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY +2.7 (44% to win) — 9.2 points clear of APP's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #67 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →App State leads 7–2 · 33% have been one-possession games
| APP | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | points / drive | 1.69 |
| 2.24 | allowed / drive | 3.12 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 24% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →