#32Brandon Burks

RB·Troy·20131.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Brandon Burks is a Explosive Back for Troy. Brandon's 2013 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 161 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brandon Burks's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

675 Rush yards2 Rush TD134 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

36 Receptions188 Rec yards0 Rec TD5.2 Yards/rec

Returns

10 Kick returns181 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency15
Volume53
Explosiveness40
Consistency47
Receiving60

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency47th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -26).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	EPA/play
1	vsUAB	W34-31	-20.8	9	41	4.6	1	5	29	0.05
2	vsSavannah State	W66-3	—	8	31	3.9	0	3	15	0.38
3	@Arkansas State	L34-41	-16.2	9	20	2.2	0	6	31	-0.08
4	@Mississippi State	L7-62	10.7	8	43	5.4	0	2	8	0.14
5	@Duke	L31-38	5.0	16	68	4.3	0	3	31	0.29
6	vsSouth Alabama	W34-33	-10.2	17	100	5.9	0	5	22	0.36
7	@Georgia State	W35-28	-32.6	23	113	4.9	0	3	7	-0.07
9	@Western Kentucky	W32-26	-3.1	9	52	5.8	0	2	5	0.06
10	vsUL Monroe	L37-49	-26.2	7	41	5.9	0	2	30	0.63
11	@Louisiana	L36-41	-12.5	15	126	8.4	0	3	7	0.41
12	@Ole Miss	L21-51	12.4	5	8	1.6	1	1	6	-0.46
14	vsTexas State	W42-28	-13.7	8	32	4.0	0	1	-3	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.6%

Passing plays

6.1%

Rushing plays

33.5%

Standard downs

19.5%

Passing downs

16.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 36 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.