@ Ole Miss · Wk 3Win prob 22%Model +11.3Schedule & Results
SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Sam LeavittPassing574 yds · 2 TD · 4 INT
Dilin JonesRushing179 yds · 2 TD · 4.4 avg
Trey'Dez GreenReceiving10 rec · 162 yds · 1 TD
TJ DotteryTackles14 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 113 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Husan Longstreet | QB | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Corona, CA |
| 10 | Sam Leavitt | QB | JR | 6'2" | 216 | West Linn, OR |
| 11 | Landen Clark | QB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Radford, VA |
| 19 | Kaden Martin | QB | SR | 5'11" | 231 | Atlanta, GA |
| 21 | Cayden Jones | QB | FR | 5'10" | 172 | Denham Springs, LA |
| 13 | Dilin Jones | RB | SO | 5'11" | 211 | Laurel, MD |
| 22 | Harlem Berry | RB | SO | 5'10" | 187 | New Orleans, LA |
| 23 | Stacy Gage | RB | SO | 5'10" | 206 | Tampa, FL |
| 24 | Joseph Ebun | RB | JR | 5'11" | 191 | Johns Creek, GA |
| 25 | Rod Gainey Jr. | RB | SO | 5'9" | 183 | Tampa, FL |
| 27 | Raycine Guillory Jr. | RB | FR | 5'10" | 179 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 29 | Caden Durham | RB | JR | 5'9" | 200 | Oklahoma City, OK |
| 1 | Jayce Brown | WR | SR | 5'11" | 175 | Fort Walton Beach, FL |
| 2 | Tre' Brown | WR | JR | 6'2" | 190 | Savannah, GA |
| 3 | Eugene Wilson III | WR | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Tampa, FL |
| 4 | Jackson Harris | WR | JR | 6'2" | 202 | Berkeley, CA |
| 6 | Winston Watkins Jr. | WR | SO | 5'10" | 182 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 15 | Phillip Wright III | WR | FR | 6'0" | 171 | Shrewsbury, LA |
| 26 | Nolon Buckels | WR | FR | 5'8" | 190 | Prosper, TX |
| 80 | Brayden Allen | WR | FR | 6'2" | 197 | Lafayette, LA |
| 82 | Roman Mothershed | WR | JR | 6'5" | 208 | Montgomery, AL |
| 83 | Corey Barber Jr. | WR | FR | 5'11" | 188 | Trussville, AL |
| 84 | Tyree Holloway | WR | JR | 5'10" | 174 | Jacksonville, NC |
| 85 | Josh Jackson | WR | SO | 6'2" | 199 | New Orleans, LA |
| 86 | Jabari Mack | WR | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Kenner, LA |
| 88 | Malik Elzy | WR | JR | 6'2" | 214 | Chicago, IL |
| 7 | Trey'Dez Green | TE | JR | 6'7" | 237 | Jackson, LA |
| 12 | Malachi Thomas | TE | JR | 6'3" | 242 | Thomasville, GA |
| 44 | Zach Grace | TE | JR | 6'2" | 236 | Kearney, MO |
| 46 | James Larson | TE | SO | 6'4" | 235 | St. Charles, IL |
| 47 | JD LaFleur | TE | FR | 6'6" | 254 | Sulphur, LA |
| 81 | Landon Craig | TE | SO | 6'3" | 230 | New Orleans, LA |
| 87 | JC Anderson | TE | FR | 6'6" | 256 | Mount Zion, IL |
| 50 | William Satterwhite II | OL | SO | 6'3" | 293 | Barberton, OH |
| 51 | Ryan Miret | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Miami, FL |
| 52 | Ja'Quan Sprinkle | OL | JR | 6'4" | 297 | Orangeburg, SC |
| 53 | Hayes Fuqua | OL | FR | 6'6" | 281 | West Monroe, LA |
| 54 | Ja'Mard Jones Jr. | OL | SO | 6'2" | 312 | Metairie, LA |
| 55 | Aliou Bah | OL | SR | 6'5" | 327 | Memphis, TN |
| 61 | Braelin Moore | OL | SR | 6'2" | 301 | Bethlehem, PA |
| 67 | Bo Bordelon | OL | SR | 6'6" | 305 | Raceland, LA |
| 68 | Brett Bordelon | OL | FR | 6'4" | 276 | Raceland, LA |
| 73 | Adrian Lamb | OL | SO | 6'5" | 290 | Beaufort, SC |
| 74 | Braden Augustus | OL | JR | 6'1" | 313 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 76 | Christian Stamps | OL | JR | 6'0" | 326 | Metairie, LA |
| 57 | JaKolby Jones | OT | JR | 6'5" | 298 | Many, LA |
| 65 | Sean Thompkins Jr. | OT | JR | 6'5" | 308 | Covington, GA |
| 66 | Solomon Thomas | OT | FR | 6'3" | 320 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 69 | Darrin Strey | OT | FR | 6'7" | 314 | Paw Paw, MI |
| 70 | Devin Harper | OT | SO | 6'4" | 312 | Shreveport, LA |
| 71 | Brysten Martinez | OT | FR | 6'5" | 318 | Gonzales, LA |
| 75 | Weston Davis | OT | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Beaumont, TX |
| 77 | Jordan Seaton | OT | JR | 6'5" | 307 | Washington, DC |
| 1 | Princewill Umanmielen | DE | SR | 6'4" | 244 | Austin, TX |
| 17 | Damien Shanklin | DE | FR | 6'5" | 254 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 19 | Gabriel Reliford | DE | SO | 6'3" | 270 | Shreveport, LA |
| 29 | Jordan Ross | DE | JR | 6'5" | 246 | Birmingham, AL |
| 48 | Kolaj Cobbins | DE | SO | 6'3" | 234 | Saint Rose, LA |
| 55 | Lamar Brown | DE | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Erwinville, LA |
| 91 | Trenton Henderson | DE | FR | 6'4" | 243 | Pensacola, FL |
| 93 | Jaylen Brown | DE | SO | 6'6" | 270 | Madison, AL |
| 97 | Dylan Carpenter | DE | JR | 6'3" | 252 | Saint Amant, LA |
| 44 | Junior Tuihalamaka | DL | SR | 6'2" | 260 | Granada Hills, CA |
| 47 | Malik Blocton | DT | JR | 6'3" | 286 | Pike Road, AL |
| 87 | Joey August | DT | JR | 6'0" | 282 | New Orleans, LA |
| 88 | Richard Anderson | DT | FR | 6'3" | 339 | New Orleans, LA |
| 90 | Stephiylan Green | DT | JR | 6'3" | 296 | Rome, GA |
| 92 | Brandon Brown | DT | FR | 6'1" | 287 | Melbourne, FL |
| 95 | Shone Washington | DT | SR | 6'4" | 294 | New Orleans, LA |
| 96 | Dominick McKinley | DT | JR | 6'6" | 297 | Lafayette, LA |
| 98 | Achilles Woods | DT | SO | 6'3" | 292 | Decatur, AL |
| 99 | Deuce Geralds | DT | FR | 6'1" | 279 | Suwanee, GA |
| 6 | TJ Dottery | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Montgomery, AL |
| 7 | Whit Weeks | LB | SR | 6'3" | 223 | Watkinsville, GA |
| 15 | Jaiden Braker | LB | FR | 6'3" | 223 | Snellville, GA |
| 24 | Tylen Singleton | LB | SO | 6'1" | 227 | Many, LA |
| 26 | Charles Ross II | LB | SO | 6'1" | 218 | Houston, TX |
| 31 | CJ Jimcoily | LB | SO | 6'3" | 218 | Nashville, TN |
| 32 | Keylan Moses | LB | FR | 6'2" | 212 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 35 | Zach Weeks | LB | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Oconee, GA |
| 42 | Davhon Keys | LB | JR | 6'0" | 227 | Aledo, TX |
| 49 | Theo Grace | LB | FR | 6'2" | 231 | Kearney, MO |
| 56 | Jake Ibieta | LB | JR | 6'0" | 237 | Metairie, LA |
| 5 | DJ Pickett | CB | SO | 6'4" | 189 | Zephyrhills, FL |
| 8 | Ja'Keem Jackson | CB | JR | 6'0" | 188 | Kissimmee, FL |
| 11 | PJ Woodland | CB | JR | 5'11" | 164 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 21 | Michael Turner Jr. | CB | SO | 6'1" | 162 | Kenner, LA |
| 22 | Havon Finney Jr. | CB | FR | 6'1" | 173 | Carson, CA |
| 23 | Aidan Anding | CB | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Grambling, LA |
| 27 | Dez Ellis | CB | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Wisner, LA |
| 30 | Treylan James | CB | JR | 6'1" | 183 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 36 | Emari Peterson | CB | FR | 6'1" | 198 | Orlando, FL |
| 37 | Craig Walton Jr. | CB | JR | 5'11" | 174 | Camden, NJ |
| 39 | Lavonte Williams | DB | SO | 6'3" | 180 | Camden, SC |
| 46 | Seth Knothe | DB | SR | 6'1" | 214 | Boise, ID |
| 0 | Tamarcus Cooley | S | JR | 6'0" | 206 | Knightdale, NC |
| 2 | Ty Benefield | S | SR | 6'3" | 208 | Altadena, CA |
| 10 | Dashawn Spears | S | JR | 6'3" | 209 | Denham Springs, LA |
| 13 | Faheem Delane | S | SO | 6'2" | 213 | Good Hope, MD |
| 16 | John Hurley | S | SR | 5'11" | 179 | Vienna, VA |
| 25 | Aiden Hall | S | FR | 6'2" | 193 | New Orleans, LA |
| 28 | Jhase Thomas | S | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Destrehan, LA |
| 33 | Isaiah Washington | S | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Haynesville, LA |
| 34 | Mason Dossett | S | SO | 6'0" | 187 | Missouri City, TX |
| 38 | Jackson Williams | S | FR | 6'2" | 180 | New Orleans, LA |
| 32 | Gavin Higgins | PK | FR | 5'11" | 189 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 36 | Aidan Corbello | PK | JR | 5'9" | 199 | New Orleans, LA |
| 45 | Sean Perret | PK | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 80 | Scott Starzyk | PK | SO | 5'9" | 175 | The Woodlands, TX |
| 90 | Grant Chadwick | P | JR | 6'5" | 213 | Tullahoma, TN |
| 99 | Hayden Craig | P | FR | 6'1" | 206 | Mercier, PQ |
| 39 | Mack Mulhern | LS | FR | 6'1" | 224 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 43 | Silas Hall | LS | SO | 6'3" | 216 | Baton Rouge, LA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
LSU is in year 1 under Lane Kiffin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 7th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 133rd at staying out of the backfield, and they are 116th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+11.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
LSU has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#7projected
- Defenserunning it#23projected
- Defensethrowing it#27projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#133projected
- Offenserunning it#116projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#110projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.42#33
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.56 / 1.60
- Power / stuff (off)
- 63.6% / 13.2%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 30.2%#3
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 23.6% / 6.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.04#102 | 0.49#22 | 0.24#116 |
| Defense | -0.33#11 | -0.55#1 | -0.39#2 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2458th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2799th
- Offense success rate50%72nd
- Defense success rate allowed19%99th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs51%61st
- Offense success — passing downs47%91st
- Defense success allowed — standard downs28%94th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs8%99th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.359th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.245th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.049th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.054th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.823rd
- Defense line yards allowed1.793rd
- Offense highlight yards1.360th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0496th
- Offense power success0.6026th
- Defense power success allowed0.3393rd
- Offense stuff rate0.1753rd
- Defense stuff rate0.2989th
Third down
- Third down conversion63%93rd
- Third down distance faced5.493rd
- Third down conversion allowed17%98th
- Third down distance forced9.394th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3599th
- Net success rate — second half0.2694th
Drives
- Points per drive3.277th
- Points per drive allowed0.4096th
- Average starting field position3895th
- Opponent starting field position2854th
- Available yards gained66%84th
- Available yards allowed18%99th
- Scoring opportunities per drive92%83rd
- Scoring opportunities allowed64%88th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.774th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.193rd
- Three-and-out rate23%50th
- Three-and-outs forced56%99th
Roster
- Returning usage27%28th
- Returning EPA42.923rd
- Team talent composite93295th
- Recruiting class rank11.093rd
- Recruiting class points27393rd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.092 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 26 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 47.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 47.4%
- Over expected
- +0.5
- Fourth down vs peers
- -13
- Fourth down vs the model
- -60
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. LSU is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to LSU in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 7-6 | 3-5 | 54% | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 10-4 | 6-3 | 71% | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 7.2 | -1.2 |
| 2020 | 5-5 | 5-5 | 50% | 3.1 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 15-0 | 9-0 | 100% | 14.6 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 10-3 | 5-3 | 77% | 9.8 | +0.2 |
| 2017 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 9.3 | -0.3 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
2-0 so far, projected to finish 9.5-2.8. Top-four bye in 23%. Wins the SEC in 16%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 21.9 points since preseason — won 51-10 over Clemson against an expected margin of +10, so +31.3 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 36% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 4.08 bids in an average season, and four or more in 75%.
LSU’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4vs Texas A&M39.9
- wk10vs Alabama39.5
- wk11vs Texas39.2
- wk7vs Mississippi State39.1
- wk12at Tennessee38.0
- wk3at Ole Miss36.6
Who to root for
Games LSU is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Mississippi State over Texas2.5
- wk12Louisiana Tech over Arkansas State2.4
- wk6Missouri over Texas A&M2.4
- wk6Maryland over Ohio State2.4
- wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech2.3
- wk3Kentucky over Texas A&M2.3
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 6.4-2.63 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 49% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk11Texas at LSU19.9
- wk4Texas A&M at LSU17.7
- wk10Alabama at LSU17.2
- wk12LSU at Tennessee17.1
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
LSU is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Citrus Bowl10%
- ReliaQuest Bowl8.4%
- Gator Bowl6.8%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl5.6%
- Music City Bowl4.3%
- Texas Bowl3.4%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 22 have sent LSU a player since 2010 — 73 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of LSU's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.