Vaught-Hemingway StadiumABCConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MISS 2009
LSU 1675
Projected spread
MISS -15.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
88% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
MISS (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MISS Elo 2009, LSU Elo 1675) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -15.9 (88% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelLSU 12% · MISS 88%
Pick: MISS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
LSU2025 season · national rank shownMISS
334.2111th
Total yards / game
490.12nd5.399th
Yards / play
6.7Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. LSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge MISS.
- LSU rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. LSU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge MISS.
FAQ
Who will win LSU vs. Ole Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for LSU vs. Ole Miss?
The model projects Ole Miss by 15.9.
What time is LSU vs. Ole Miss and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 PM on ABC, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ole Miss at 88% to win, projecting Ole Miss by 15.9.