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Florida

Florida Gators

SEC·2-0·
Compare
Elo
1658#31
SP+
18.6#15
FPI
15.5
AP
NR
Next@ Auburn · Wk 3Win prob 49%Model +0.3
Talent #10 (891.1)Recruiting class #1769% production returning

Roster · 117 players

FR 25SO 26JR 26SR 40
#PlayerPosClHtWt
9Tramell Jones Jr.QBSO6'0"196
10Aaron WilliamsQBJR6'1"206
11Will GriffinQBFR6'3"219
12Aaron PhiloQBJR6'1"207
16Aidan WarnerQBSR6'3"202
13Jadan BaughRBJR6'1"225
20Duke ClarkRBSO6'2"208
21Evan PryorRBSR5'10"189
24London MontgomeryRBSR5'10"192
25Anthony RubioRBSR5'9"187
27Byron LouisRBSO6'0"195
33Brian CaseRBSO6'0"212
34Kelvin JimenezRBJR6'1"216
1Vernell Brown IIIWRSO5'11"178
2Eric Singleton Jr.WRSR5'10"184
3Bailey StocktonWRSR5'10"183
4TJ AbramsWRJR5'10"198
5Micah Mays Jr.WRSR6'1"197
6Dallas WilsonWRSO6'3"212
14Jaden EdgecombeWRSR5'8"190
18Davian GroceWRFR6'2"199
19Jaylen LloydWRSR5'10"185
22Kahleil JacksonWRSR6'3"214
81Mason JordanWRFR5'9"173
82Ace CiongoliWRSO5'10"181
83Justin WilliamsWRFR5'11"199
88Marquez DanielWRFR6'5"219
7Amir JacksonTEJR6'5"232
15Luke HarpringTEJR6'3"237
17Lacota DippreTESR6'3"248
80Jaylen JordonTESR6'5"247
84Micah JonesTESO6'4"254
85Evan ChiecaTESR6'4"253
86Heze KentTEFR6'6"288
89Tripp Brown Jr.TEFR6'5"240
50Jason ZandamelaOLJR6'3"286
51Tyler ChukuyemOLFR6'6"300
52Harrison MooreOLJR6'4"293
53Bryce LovettOLSR6'5"305
54Javarii LuckasOLFR6'6"313
55TJ Dice Jr.OLSO6'3"298
56Jahari MedlockOLSO6'5"309
59Corey BrownOLFR6'1"295
61G'Nivre CarrOLFR6'4"311
63Caden JonesOLSR6'8"319
64Eagan BoyerOLJR6'8"306
66Emeka UgorjiOLSO6'4"308
67TJ Shanahan Jr.OLSR6'4"309
68Fletcher WestphalOLJR6'8"309
71Roderick KearneyOLSR6'4"303
73Daniel Pierre LouisOLSO6'4"327
76Mark FairclothOLJR6'5"312
77Knijeah HarrisOLSR6'3"308
78Desmond GreenOLFR6'5"321
79Chancellor CampbellOLFR6'8"318
11LJ McCrayDLJR6'6"277
24Kamran JamesDLSR6'6"278
40Jayden GrossDLFR6'3"246
49Jalen WigginsDLSO6'5"271
56Stive-Bentley Keumajou-YonduiDLFR6'3"295
90Brendan BettDLSR6'4"319
91Jeramiah McCloudDLSO6'3"294
92Sebastian ScottDLSR6'2"360
93DK KaluDLSR6'3"309
94Kendall GuervilDLFR6'5"309
95Jamari LyonsDLSR6'4"312
96JaReylan McCoyDLFR6'7"268
97Joseph MbatchouDLSO6'5"321
98Mason ClintonDLSR6'5"293
99Emmanuel OyebadejoDLSR6'6"299
0Jayden WoodsLBSO6'3"245
5Myles GrahamLBJR6'1"228
7Ty JacksonLBSO6'2"228
8Aaron ChilesLBJR6'3"238
14KJ FordLBFR6'4"250
16TJ BullardLBSR6'1"213
17Titus BullardLBJR6'4"239
22Kofi AsareLBSR6'5"247
29Jaden RobinsonLBSR6'0"227
42Matthew KadeLBJR6'0"223
44Myles JohnsonLBSO6'1"232
48Erich SeagerLBJR6'3"233
50Malik MorrisLBFR6'0"246
52Dylan LeightonLBSO6'1"229
55Charles Emanuel IIILBJR6'3"235
3Onis KonanbannyCBSO6'0"190
6J'Vari FlowersCBSO5'10"189
12Ben Hanks IIICBSO6'1"186
13Jordy LoweryCBSR5'10"183
15CJ BronaughCBFR6'0"183
21CJ HesterCBFR6'0"192
23Javier JonesCBJR6'1"181
25Cormani McClainCBSR6'2"181
27Dijon JohnsonCBSR6'1"202
36Vincent Brown Jr.CBSR5'7"168
37Javion ToombsCBSR5'11"188
20Kanye ClarkDBSR5'10"184
28Elijah OwensDBSO6'2"209
30Dylan PurterDBFR6'0"184
1Bryce ThorntonSSR5'10"211
2Lagonza HaywardSSO6'1"207
9Drake StubbsSSO6'1"203
10Cam DooleySJR6'2"207
32Eric ParksSFR6'0"193
33DJ ColemanSSR6'0"206
34Kaiden HallSFR6'2"210
35Brayden SladeSSR6'1"193
43Alfonzo Allen Jr.SSR5'11"196
40Brandon RabascoPKJR6'4"215
41Liam PadronPKJR5'9"191
91Patrick DurkinPKJR5'11"189
38Alec ClarkPSR6'0"186
47Miller FealyPJR6'1"208
48Nicholas InglisPJR6'5"227
39Carter MillironLSSR5'11"236
54Lincoln AndersonLSFR6'2"243
58Hunter SolwoldLSSO6'3"232

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
59.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
12.0
scoring defense
Differential
+47.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
624.0#7
Yards / play
9.3#4
Passing yards / game
343.0#11
Rushing yards / game
281.0#15
First downs / game
30.0#8
3rd down %
55.6%#20
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
31:36#57
Defense
Yards allowed / game
396.0#103
Yards / play allowed
4.4#50
Pass yards allowed / game
276.0#120
Rush yards allowed / game
120.0#80
3rd down % allowed
50.0%#116
Sacks
2#81
Tackles for loss
6#91
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#22
Takeaways
3#30
Giveaways
1#31
Penalties / game
3.0#6
Penalty yards / game
32.0#18

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

Florida is in year 1 under Jon Sumrall, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 26th in the push up front. The way in is 126th at hitting chunk plays.

On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Florida has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensethe push the line gets
    #26
    projected
  • Offensemoving the ball on the ground
    #29
    projected
  • Defenserunning it
    #31
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #126
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
5.7 – 6.3
projected final record (now 2–0)
Exp. wins left
3.7
of 10 games
Bowl odds
55%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
67%
vs Kentucky
Toughest
14%
vs Texas

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

23456789101112
final winstallest bar = 27% chance
Likeliest finish 6-6 (27%)Bowl eligible 55% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBAaron Philo
+29.2 EPA
WRKahleil Jackson, Micah Mays Jr. +4
+24.9 EPA
RBEvan Pryor, London Montgomery +2
+17.3 EPA
TEAmir Jackson, Luke Harpring
+1.1 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBAaron Philo
~$932K
EPA +29.20.729/play40 snaps
RBJadan Baugh
~$280K
EPA +18.20.759/play24 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.6194th#9
Def-0.0780th#28
Explosiveness
Off1.3160th#56
Def1.2163rd#52
Field position
Off70.456th#61
Def71.263rd#52
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off6.4398th#4
Def3.0061st#55
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 1
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.6987th#19
Off · rush
0.5493rd#11

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.5493rd#11
Def0.1723rd#107
Passing
Off0.6987th#19
Def0.0280th#29

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.96#79
2nd-level / open-field
1.45 / 2.30
Power / stuff (off)
100.0% / 15.0%
Havoc — total (def)
23.3%#22
Havoc — front 7 / DB
11.3% / 11.9%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.61
Def-0.04
Pass downs
Off0.63
Def-0.12

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.29#250.85#40.76#45
Defense-0.09#54-0.23#190.64#104

Elo Trajectory

Florida AtlanticFinal
Elo rating 1562 → 1669+107 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.6295th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.1145th
  • Offense success rate54%76th
  • Defense success rate allowed40%41st

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs59%79th
  • Offense success — passing downs36%58th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs41%54th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs38%19th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.692nd
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.165th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.598th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.943rd

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.470th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.755th
  • Offense highlight yards2.689th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.0388th
  • Offense power success1.099th
  • Defense power success allowed0.8042nd
  • Offense stuff rate0.1082nd
  • Defense stuff rate0.1111th

Third down

  • Third down conversion56%77th
  • Third down distance faced8.67th
  • Third down conversion allowed50%21st
  • Third down distance forced5.510th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1764th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1053rd

Drives

  • Points per drive6.099th
  • Points per drive allowed2.149th
  • Average starting field position3167th
  • Opponent starting field position2575th
  • Available yards gained87%97th
  • Available yards allowed49%47th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed70%75th
  • Points per scoring opportunity6.098th
  • Points allowed per opportunity3.043rd
  • Three-and-out rate9%88th
  • Three-and-outs forced30%59th

Roster

  • Returning usage79%92nd
  • Returning EPA14361st
  • Team talent composite89193rd
  • Recruiting class rank17.088th
  • Recruiting class points25188th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant attack — top 7 nationally by EPA/play
EPA/play
+0.611#9 · elite
Pass EPA/play
+0.691#19
Rush EPA/play
+0.544#11
Explosiveness
1.309#56
Pts/opportunity
6.43#4
Success rate
63.0%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.147 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense suppressing opponents below the national average
EPA/play allowed
-0.073#28 · top 20%
Havoc rate (total)
23.3%#22
Front-7 havoc
11.3%
DB havoc
11.9%
Big play rate allowed
1.206#52
Success rate allowed
35.1%

Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.

📊

Season Signature

59.0 PPG offense, 12.0 allowed — +47.0 margin/game
Points per game
59.0
Points allowed/game
12.0
Scoring margin/game
+47.0
Turnover margin
+2won 3 · lost 1
Production returning
69%
Talent rank (247)
#10

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE94thEXPLOSIVENESS60thFINISHING98thFIELD POS56thDEFENSE80thHAVOC85th50th100th
Offense
94th
Explosiveness
60th
Finishing
98th
Field Pos
56th
Defense
80th
Havoc
85th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+17.6
#17
Offense
+9.9
#15
Defense
-7.7
#26
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 11 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive6.002.10
Starting field positionown 30.6own 24.7
Available yards87.4%48.7%
Scoring opportunities100.0%70.0%
Points per opportunity6.003.00
Three-and-out rate9.1%30.0%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
43.2%
Expected, given the spots
48.3%
Over expected
-5.0
Fourth down vs peers
+16
Fourth down vs the model
-33
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Florida is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Florida in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Mississippi StateSP+ +9.4
Off EPA/play +0.586Def EPA/play -0.125Elo 1584
Match
97%
Georgia StateSP+ -22.7
Off EPA/play +0.631Def EPA/play -0.142Elo 1241
Match
96%
NevadaSP+ -6.1
Off EPA/play +0.637Def EPA/play -0.000Elo 1462
Match
96%
IndianaSP+ +24.1
Off EPA/play +0.656Def EPA/play +0.010Elo 2113
Match
95%
SMUSP+ +11.1
Off EPA/play +0.557Def EPA/play +0.037Elo 1728
Match
94%
Southern MissSP+ -14.9
Off EPA/play +0.523Def EPA/play -0.178Elo 1350
Match
93%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +10.3, #35 of 1282016: +17.5, #13 of 1282017: +3.1, #58 of 1302018: +17.3, #14 of 1302019: +21.1, #13 of 1302020: +14.9, #17 of 1242021: +10.0, #36 of 1302022: +8.7, #37 of 1312023: +5.7, #41 of 1332024: +11.1, #33 of 1342025: +3.5, #59 of 1362026: +17.6, #17 of 138
20152026
Now +17.6 · #17 of 138Best +21.1 in 2019Worst +3.1 in 2017

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-00-0
100%
1.0+0.0
20254-82-6
33%
4.5-0.5
20248-54-4
62%
7.7+0.3
20235-73-5
42%
5.9-0.9
20226-73-5
46%
6.3-0.3
20216-72-6
46%
8.3-2.3
20208-48-3
67%
8.0-0.0
201911-26-2
85%
10.8+0.2
201810-35-3
77%
9.6+0.4
20174-73-5
36%
3.6+0.4

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

25%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-0 so far, projected to finish 7.9-4.3. Top-four bye in 7.4%. Wins the SEC in 5.2%.

If they finish with…

100%
0 losses
100%
1 loss
97%
2 losses
31%
3 losses
0.3%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.

up 9.8 points since preseason — won 66-21 over Florida Atlantic against an expected margin of +24, so +21.3 against the number.

  • At 3 losses they are 31% where the average SEC team is 41%.
  • The SEC takes 3.83 bids in an average season, and four or more in 65%.

Florida’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk7at Texas36.2
  • wk9at Georgia32.9
  • wk10vs Oklahoma29.9
  • wk5at Missouri27.6
  • wk6vs South Carolina27.4
  • wk4vs Ole Miss27.3

Who to root for

Games Florida is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech2.6
  • wk2Oklahoma State over Oregon2.3
  • wk5Vanderbilt over Georgia2.3
  • wk12Arkansas over Texas2.2
  • wk13Georgia Tech over Georgia2.2
  • wk12Michigan State over Oregon2.1
The full playoff picture →

SEC

0-0 in league play, projected 5.1-3.97 of 16 by title odds
5.2%
Wins the SEC
12%
Reaches the title game

The SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 48% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk7Florida at Texas11.8
  • wk9Florida at Georgia11.0
  • wk10Oklahoma at Florida7.6
  • wk5Florida at Missouri7.1

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →

If not the playoff, then

86%
Bowl eligible
62%
Placed in a bowl
25%
In the playoff
13%
Season over in November

Florida is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 0.8% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.

  • ReliaQuest Bowl8.7%
  • Gator Bowl8.5%
  • Citrus Bowl8.4%
  • Duke's Mayo Bowl8.2%
  • Music City Bowl7.9%
  • Texas Bowl6.8%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 28 have sent Florida a player since 2010 — 77 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Florida's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Booker T. WashingtonFL81
St. Thomas AquinasFL71
LakelandFL70
American HeritageFL62
Trinity Christian AcademyFL60
DwyerFL43
ArmwoodFL31
Cardinal GibbonsFL30
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.