Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (FLA Elo 1593, MISS Elo 2009) plus home-field advantage. That projects FLA +16.4 (11% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Availability-Adjusted Projection
Availability impact
Model estimateNo ruled-out starters
- Out Kahleil Jackson (WR)not quantified
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: MISS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. FLA pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. FLA rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge MISS.
- FLA rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
FAQ
Who will win Ole Miss vs. Florida?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ole Miss vs. Florida?
The model projects Ole Miss by 16.4.
What time is Ole Miss vs. Florida and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Ole Miss at 89% to win, projecting Ole Miss by 16.4.