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Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Sun Belt·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1270#120
SP+
-12.1#110
FPI
-11.1
AP
NR
Next@ Delaware · Wk 3Win prob 8%Model +22.2
Talent #105 (574.0)Recruiting class #11815% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Coastal Carolina

All news →

Deuce Bailey was responsible for 18 of Coastal Carolina's 24 points

Matchup · Sep 6

West Virginia's run defense meets a rebuilt Coastal offense

Matchup · Sep 2

Roster · 104 players

FR 23SO 30JR 28SR 23
#PlayerPosClHtWt
2Deuce BaileyQBFR6'1"190
4Tre GuerraQBJR6'2"190
7Trever JacksonQBSO6'3"202
12Osiris LopezQBFR6'2"185
15Luke McBrideQBFR6'3"206
20Jevon EdwardsRBSO5'10"197
21Kente EdwardsRBFR5'9"197
22Breyahn TownsendRBJR5'10"185
23Dominic KnicelyRBSO5'10"193
25Jaden Allen-HendrixRBSO6'2"225
26Daelen AlexanderRBJR5'10"221
28Joe OberRBSO5'11"221
0Karmello EnglishWRSR6'0"190
1Robby WashingtonWRJR5'11"180
3Tristian GardnerWRSO6'2"180
5Goldie LawrenceWRJR6'1"190
6Krosse JohnsonWRSO5'10"180
8Clayton Coppock Jr.WRSO6'1"165
14Colton HintonWRSR5'11"180
80Trishstin GlassWRSO6'5"205
81Dwayne WhiteWRSO6'3"200
82Nathan SchuesslerWRJR5'11"185
83KD HainsworthWRFR6'0"160
84Joshua ParkerWRFR6'4"208
87Jayden JohnsonWRFR6'2"165
89Tamarion LaFortuneWRSO6'0"170
9Cyrus EllisonTESR6'4"240
33Zach CourtneyTESR6'6"253
44Brown ReavesTESO6'4"235
85Ben VergesTESO6'5"249
86Bryson WoodTEJR6'4"228
88Jackson KohlTEFR6'6"250
50Nasir JonesOLFR6'4"300
52Gabe JonesOLFR6'3"300
55Gavin McLaughlinOLSO6'4"315
56Tray FranklinOLSR6'5"315
58Apisa PoumeleOLSR6'0"290
62Beau GwynnOLFR6'2"330
65Joshua DanielOLJR6'4"320
66Kain McDonaldOLSO6'2"305
68Mason BartonOLJR6'7"335
70Daniel JonesOLJR6'6"298
71Stephan MondesirOLFR6'5"330
72Dominic RijosOLSO6'2"320
75Kyler JohnsonOLFR6'5"315
76Cristian LoaizaOLSR6'5"330
77Johnathan AshleyOLJR6'4"300
78Daughtry RichardsonOLSR6'6"328
1Ibrahim DiawaraDESR6'4"260
31Aiden ParkerDEFR6'3"225
49Shaikh ThompsonDESO6'5"250
58Sam RossDEJR6'4"243
93Obinna OnwukaDESO6'5"245
0Chandavian BradleyDLJR6'6"240
7DJ WesolakDLJR6'4"255
35Xzavier BookerDLJR6'2"315
50Mitchell ToneyDLJR6'2"275
90Reggie JeanDLSR6'3"299
92Ahmad PooleDLSR6'0"305
94Donovan GraysonDLJR6'3"240
95Nolan KorzeniowskiDLSR6'3"280
98Dezmond BarnesDLSO6'3"310
99Jordan StevensDLFR6'4"235
97Cam WilliamsDTSR6'3"285
4Marcellius PulliamLBJR6'3"240
11Braxton StarnesLBSO6'3"225
18Jordan ThompsonLBJR5'11"220
19Se'Von McDowellLBJR6'1"220
27Romello PattersonLBFR6'2"224
34Wyatt GedeonLBSR6'1"225
37Cameron AveryLBJR6'0"215
43Garrett OrgasLBJR6'4"200
44Kaden SappLBSO6'2"220
55Tray BrownLBSR6'1"232
2Ja'Marion WayneCBSR6'2"207
3Ryan GraysonCBFR6'0"165
8Gabe WhiteCBJR6'2"210
10Travis RomanCBJR6'1"165
21King WhiteCBJR6'0"180
36Damill Bostic Jr.CBSO6'0"185
38Garrett Smith-DeanCBJR5'10"175
47Michael KnightCBFR6'3"170
9Donald QuistDBFR6'3"205
14Myles WoodsDBJR5'10"180
16Jesse Powell IIDBSR6'4"215
23Azarel JusteDBJR6'3"195
45Kadon CrawfordDBSO6'2"208
6Jalen LeeSSR6'1"200
12Dre PinckneySSR6'0"193
15Mason MooreSSR6'1"195
17Chris HenrySSO6'0"196
20Jax PopeSFR6'1"190
25Brandon RoseSSO5'11"188
26Chase JacksonSSO6'2"186
28Rilan CunninghamSSO5'10"176
32Jayden JacksonSSR6'0"190
33Zeke MarshallSFR6'5"190
29Leo LiptakPKFR6'4"225
30Nico Cavanillas AltiPKSR6'0"200
90Daniel PortoPKSR6'0"202
42Roland PodestaPFR6'3"210
84Andrew GinsbergPSO5'10"197
41Mitch WeisenbornLSSO6'3"240
46Gavin CarrickLSSO5'11"235

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
34.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
19.0
scoring defense
Differential
+15.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
442.5#43
Yards / play
6.7#44
Passing yards / game
291.0#30
Rushing yards / game
151.5#81
First downs / game
22.5#49
3rd down %
34.8%#96
4th down %
33.3%#99
Time of possession
28:30#99
Defense
Yards allowed / game
314.0#63
Yards / play allowed
4.9#58
Pass yards allowed / game
116.5#10
Rush yards allowed / game
197.5#122
3rd down % allowed
37.9%#81
Sacks
5#38
Tackles for loss
12#53
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+3#15
Takeaways
5#9
Giveaways
2#48
Penalties / game
8.0#106
Penalty yards / game
55.0#68

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Coastal Carolina is in year 1 under Ryan Beard. The way in is 134th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 131st on first and second down.

Coastal Carolina has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offensestaying on schedule through the air
    #134
    projected
  • Offensefirst and second down
    #131
    projected
  • Offensesacks and tackles for loss
    #129
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
3.7 – 8.3
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
2.7
of 10 games
Bowl odds
8%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
51%
vs Arkansas State
Toughest
7%
vs Marshall

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 4-8 (28%)Bowl eligible 8% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRKarmello English, Robby Washington +4
+30.1 EPA
QBTre Guerra, Deuce Bailey
+24.0 EPA
RBJaden Allen-Hendrix, Jevon Edwards +1
+0.2 EPA
TEZach Courtney, Cyrus Ellison
-5.5 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBDeuce Bailey
~$913K
EPA +27.40.371/play74 snaps
RBJevon Edwards
~$145K
EPA -2.4-0.110/play22 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.2559th#57
Def0.0761st#54
Explosiveness
Off1.4683rd#24
Def1.0191st#14
Field position
Off66.718th#114
Def72.452nd#67
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.4365th#49
Def2.5877th#32
Turnovers
Won 5Lost 2
Margin +3

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3453rd#65
Off · rush
0.1141st#82

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1141st#82
Def-0.0157th#60
Passing
Off0.3453rd#66
Def0.3522nd#108

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.20#52
2nd-level / open-field
1.60 / 1.30
Power / stuff (off)
60.0% / 24.0%
Havoc — total (def)
17.2%#56
Havoc — front 7 / DB
11.2% / 6.0%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.21
Def0.05
Pass downs
Off0.34
Def0.10

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.22#310.35#480.27#111
Defense-0.10#470.12#680.27#56

Elo Trajectory

@West VirginiaFinal
Elo rating 1275 → 1270-5 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2460th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.0364th
  • Offense success rate45%52nd
  • Defense success rate allowed38%48th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs50%56th
  • Offense success — passing downs32%50th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs42%53rd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs27%50th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.479th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed0.9896th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.281st
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.831st

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.155th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.930th
  • Offense highlight yards1.153rd
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.615th
  • Offense power success0.6331st
  • Defense power success allowed0.7543rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.2414th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1417th

Third down

  • Third down conversion33%21st
  • Third down distance faced7.914th
  • Third down conversion allowed41%38th
  • Third down distance forced6.626th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.0130th
  • Net success rate — second half0.1677th

Drives

  • Points per drive1.844th
  • Points per drive allowed2.640th
  • Average starting field position2520th
  • Opponent starting field position3229th
  • Available yards gained44%35th
  • Available yards allowed62%23rd
  • Scoring opportunities per drive77%43rd
  • Scoring opportunities allowed92%18th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.441st
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.853rd
  • Three-and-out rate23%50th
  • Three-and-outs forced42%90th

CORE

  • CORE offense4.075th
  • CORE defense1.241st
  • CORE overall2.864th

Roster

  • Returning usage23%24th
  • Returning EPA28.412th
  • Team talent composite57424th
  • Recruiting class rank11815th
  • Recruiting class points16515th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.253#57 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.336#66
Rush EPA/play
+0.108#82
Explosiveness
1.456#24
Pts/opportunity
4.43#49
Success rate
45.0%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.229 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.065#54 · average
Havoc rate (total)
17.2%#56
Front-7 havoc
11.2%
DB havoc
6.0%
Big play rate allowed
1.011#14
Success rate allowed
40.5%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

34.5 PPG offense, 19.0 allowed — +15.5 margin/game
Points per game
34.5
Points allowed/game
19.0
Scoring margin/game
+15.5
Turnover margin
+3won 5 · lost 2
Production returning
15%
Talent rank (247)
#105

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE59thEXPLOSIVENESS83thFINISHING65thFIELD POS18thDEFENSE61thHAVOC60th50th100th
Offense
59th
Explosiveness
83th
Finishing
65th
Field Pos
18th
Defense
61th
Havoc
60th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-5.7
#96
Offense
-0.6
#73
Defense
+5.0
#103
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 13 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.852.58
Starting field positionown 24.8own 32.2
Available yards44.1%61.9%
Scoring opportunities76.9%91.7%
Points per opportunity2.402.82
Three-and-out rate23.1%41.7%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
62.7%
Expected, given the spots
58.5%
Over expected
+4.3
Fourth down vs peers
+1
Fourth down vs the model
+0
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Coastal Carolina is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Coastal Carolina in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Old DominionSP+ -6.2
Off EPA/play +0.245Def EPA/play +0.045Elo 1336
Match
99%
UCLASP+ +9.2
Off EPA/play +0.263Def EPA/play +0.045Elo 1438
Match
99%
Arizona StateSP+ +8.7
Off EPA/play +0.278Def EPA/play +0.057Elo 1572
Match
98%
TCUSP+ +3.9
Off EPA/play +0.228Def EPA/play +0.081Elo 1595
Match
98%
Middle TennesseeSP+ -20.8
Off EPA/play +0.266Def EPA/play +0.097Elo 1276
Match
98%
OregonSP+ +23.9
Off EPA/play +0.217Def EPA/play +0.069Elo 1873
Match
98%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2017–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2017: -13.7, #104 of 1302018: -16.7, #110 of 1302019: -11.8, #105 of 1302020: +17.2, #12 of 1242021: +9.9, #39 of 1302022: -0.8, #70 of 1312023: -0.2, #63 of 1332024: -11.9, #106 of 1342025: -16.4, #115 of 1362026: -5.7, #96 of 138
20172026
Now -5.7 · #96 of 138Best +17.2 in 2020Worst -16.7 in 2018

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-10-0
0%
0.1-0.1
20256-75-3
46%
5.2+0.8
20246-73-5
46%
6.0+0.0
20238-55-3
62%
7.7+0.3
20229-46-3
69%
7.0+2.0
202111-26-2
85%
10.5+0.5
202011-18-0
92%
10.9+0.1
20195-72-6
42%
5.2-0.2
20185-72-6
42%
4.7+0.3
20173-92-6
25%
3.7-0.7

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.1%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 5.2-6.8. Wins the Sun Belt in 2.5%.

If they finish with…

2.4%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

down 0.1 points since preseason — lost 24-31 to West Virginia against an expected margin of −16, so +8.8 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 2.4% where the average Sun Belt team is 2.1%.
  • The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 96% of those.

Coastal Carolina’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk13at James Madison0.6
  • wk12at Louisiana0.4
  • wk4vs Liberty0.3
  • wk3at Delaware0.3
  • wk6at Marshall0.2
  • wk5vs Georgia Southern0.2

Who to root for

Games Coastal Carolina is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk3UAB over Louisiana0.1
  • wk7Sacramento State over Ohio0.1
  • wk9Texas Tech over Arizona0.1
  • wk12Wyoming over New Mexico0.1
  • wk8Army over Tulsa0.1
  • wk13Charlotte over Navy0.1
The full playoff picture →

Sun Belt

East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 3.5-4.510 of 14 by title odds
2.5%
Wins the Sun Belt
5.3%
Reaches the title game

The Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Coastal Carolina can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk13Coastal Carolina at James Madison10.6
  • wk12Coastal Carolina at Louisiana4.6
  • wk7App State at Coastal Carolina4.4
  • wk10Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina4.3

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →

If not the playoff, then

44%
Bowl eligible
43%
Placed in a bowl
0.1%
In the playoff
57%
Season over in November

Coastal Carolina is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • New Orleans Bowl7.6%
  • Salute to Veterans Bowl6.2%
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl5.7%
  • Frisco Bowl5.1%
  • 68 Ventures Bowl4.9%
  • Boca Raton Bowl4.9%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Coastal Carolina a player since 2010 — 15 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Coastal Carolina's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
WestsideSC30
AuburnAL20
ConwayAR20
HillgroveGA20
NorthwesternFL20
Peachtree RidgeGA20
Hapeville CharterGA10
NavarreFL10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.