Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Coastal Carolina gets at Georgia State: 36th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 87th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Georgia State gets at Coastal Carolina: 41st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 104th at keeping everything in front of them. Georgia State is also 78th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 124th.
How
CCUattacks
GAST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
CCU#36 of 138GAST#87 of 138
HowGASTattacksCCU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
GAST#41 of 138CCU#104 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
GAST#78 of 138CCU#124 of 138
The two teams
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is in year 1 under Ryan Beard. The way in is 134th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 131st on first and second down.
Coastal Carolina has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#134projected
- Offensefirst and second down#131projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
Georgia State
Georgia State is in year 2 under Dell McGee. The way in is 131st at defending the pass, and they are 130th at closing out passing downs.
Georgia State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#130projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#130projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1287, CCU Elo 1270 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST -6.4 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CCU44th64thGASTGAST21st58thCCUThrough the air
CCU30th61stGASTGAST44th10thCCUOn the ground
CCU81st26thGASTGAST13th122ndCCUStaying on the field
CCU96th26thGASTGAST26th81stCCUTaking care of it
CCU48th108thGASTGAST48th9thCCU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCoastal Carolina leads 5–4 · Coastal Carolina has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| CCU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 2.58 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State?
Gridpex's model favors Georgia State with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State?
The model projects Georgia State by 6.4.
What time is Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Center Parc Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →