Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Coastal Carolina gets at Marshall: 36th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 135th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Marshall gets at Coastal Carolina: 14th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 124th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Marshall is also 23rd at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 124th.
How
CCUattacks
MRSH
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
CCU#36 of 138MRSH#135 of 138
HowMRSHattacksCCU
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MRSH#14 of 138CCU#124 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MRSH#23 of 138CCU#124 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MRSH#20 of 138CCU#109 of 138
The two teams
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is in year 1 under Ryan Beard. The way in is 134th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 131st on first and second down.
Coastal Carolina has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#134projected
- Offensefirst and second down#131projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
Marshall
Marshall is in year 2 under Tony Gibson. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 135th at keeping everything in front of them.
Marshall has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#14projected
- Offensefirst and second down#20projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#135projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1388, CCU Elo 1270 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -22.4 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CCU44th111thMRSHMRSH134th58thCCUThrough the air
CCU30th128thMRSHMRSH125th10thCCUOn the ground
CCU81st90thMRSHMRSH131st122ndCCUStaying on the field
CCU96th86thMRSHMRSH132nd81stCCUTaking care of it
CCU48th108thMRSHMRSH75th9thCCU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CCU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.7 (#96) | CORE overall | -9.8 (#109) |
| -1 / +5 | offense / defense | -2 / +8 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 0.61 |
| 2.58 | allowed / drive | 2.96 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 48% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall?
Gridpex's model favors Marshall with a 93% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall?
The model projects Marshall by 22.4.
What time is Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Joan C. Edwards Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →