#23Dominic Knicely

RB·Coastal Carolina·2025

Dominic Knicely is a Pass-Catching Back for Coastal Carolina. Dominic's 2025 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 74 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dominic Knicely's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

384 Rush yards3 Rush TD67 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

12 Receptions99 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.3 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns32 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume27
Explosiveness54
Consistency0
Receiving80

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.45 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs App State (SP+ -11).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Virginia	L7-48	11.1	7	27	3.9	0	1	-1	0	-0.30
2	vsCharleston Southern	W13-0	—	9	92	10.2	0	1	6	0	0.51
3	vsEast Carolina	L0-38	8.0	2	18	9.0	0	—	—	—	0.37
4	@South Alabama	W38-20	-12.7	9	32	3.6	0	—	—	—	-0.22
6	@Old Dominion	L7-47	5.9	4	11	2.8	0	—	—	—	0.09
7	vsUL Monroe	W23-8	-21.6	9	29	3.2	0	—	—	—	-0.02
8	@App State	W45-37	-11.4	5	51	10.2	1	—	—	—	1.45
10	vsMarshall	W44-27	-4.5	5	76	15.2	1	—	—	—	0.79
11	vsGeorgia State	W40-27	-24.5	2	6	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.37
12	@Georgia Southern	L40-45	-9.4	6	23	3.8	1	1	25	0	0.38
13	@South Carolina	L7-51	5.9	3	7	2.3	0	2	11	0	-0.44
14	vsJames Madison	L10-59	12.3	3	4	1.3	0	4	33	0	-0.38
20	vsLouisiana Tech	L14-23	-1.3	3	8	2.7	0	3	25	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.6%

Passing plays

4.2%

Rushing plays

14.6%

Standard downs

11.6%

Passing downs

5.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.12 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).