vs Florida State · Wk 3Win prob 72%Model -9.0Schedule & Results
ECUEast CarolinaW48-10✓Wk 2@
UKKentuckyW45-17✓Wk 3vsFSUFlorida State-9.072%Wk 4vs
SCSouth Carolina-1.253%Wk 5@
MSSTMississippi State-5.664%Wk 6vs
UGAGeorgia+11.223%Wk 7@
TENNTennessee-0.251%Wk 8vs
TA&MTexas A&M+11.922%Wk 10@
LSULSU+6.933%Wk 11@
VANVanderbilt+1.147%Wk 12vsCHATChattanoogaWk 13vs
AUBAuburn-6.265%SEC Standings
Standings →
Team Leaders
Keelon RussellPassing256 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT- Keelon RussellRushing86 yds · 1 TD · 6.6 avg
Ryan WilliamsReceiving5 rec · 130 yds · 0 TD
Yhonzae PierreTackles3 tackles · 1 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on Alabama
All news →Kentucky can't run on Alabama, so it must throw
East Carolina never gained seven yards on a first down
Keelon Russell's Debut, and a Pirate Front Built to Wreck It
Roster · 127 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Austin Mack | QB | SR | 6'6" | 237 | Folsom, CA |
| 11 | Tayden-Evan Kaawa | QB | FR | 6'5" | 238 | Moloka'i, HI |
| 12 | Keelon Russell | QB | SO | 6'3" | 207 | Duncanville, TX |
| 13 | John Gazzaniga | QB | SO | 6'7" | 241 | Rancho Santa Margarita, CA |
| 15 | Jett Thomalla | QB | FR | 6'4" | 229 | Omaha, NE |
| 19 | John Cooper | QB | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Mountain Brook, AL |
| 0 | AK Dear | RB | SO | 6'1" | 216 | Quitman, MS |
| 4 | Daniel Hill | RB | JR | 6'1" | 234 | Meridian, MS |
| 6 | Kevin Riley | RB | JR | 5'11" | 198 | Northport, AL |
| 13 | EJ Crowell | RB | FR | 5'11" | 224 | Jackson, AL |
| 17 | Trae'shawn Brown | RB | FR | 5'10" | 206 | Huntsville, TX |
| 20 | Khalifa Keith | RB | SR | 6'1" | 232 | Birmingham, AL |
| 25 | J'Alan Terry | RB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Gadsden, AL |
| 29 | Fredrick Moore | RB | JR | 5'9" | 170 | Cypress, TX |
| 29 | Jaron Jackson | RB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Livingston, AL |
| 36 | TC Washington | RB | FR | 5'11" | 220 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 1 | Ryan Coleman-Williams | WR | JR | 6'0" | 184 | Saraland, AL |
| 3 | Lotzeir Brooks | WR | SO | 5'9" | 197 | Millville, NJ |
| 5 | Noah Rogers | WR | SR | 6'2" | 206 | Raleigh, NC |
| 7 | Rico Scott | WR | JR | 6'0" | 203 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 8 | Cederian Morgan | WR | FR | 6'4" | 222 | Alexander City, AL |
| 14 | Tyler Henderson | WR | JR | 6'1" | 177 | Vicksburg, MS |
| 21 | Maurice Mathis Jr. | WR | FR | 6'1" | 198 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 23 | MJ Chirgwin | WR | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 24 | Amari Sabb | WR | FR | 5'9" | 155 | Glassboro, NJ |
| 26 | Aubrey Walker | WR | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Birmingham, AL |
| 27 | Elijah Murray | WR | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Buford, GA |
| 30 | Derek Meadows | WR | SO | 6'5" | 212 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 31 | Cooper Mollison | WR | JR | 5'10" | 177 | Vestavia Hills, AL |
| 33 | Preston Landry | WR | SR | 6'4" | 210 | Miami, FL |
| 37 | Tailan Hall | WR | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Tanner, AL |
| 42 | Ben Jackson | WR | SO | 6'2" | 165 | Mobile, AL |
| 83 | Warner Ross | WR | SR | 5'10" | 183 | Dalton, GA |
| 9 | Marshall Pritchett | TE | SO | 6'5" | 246 | Charleston, SC |
| 18 | Mack Sutter | TE | FR | 6'5" | 248 | Dunlap, IL |
| 40 | Josh Ford | TE | JR | 6'6" | 266 | Stillwater, OK |
| 46 | Peyton Fox | TE | SR | 6'4" | 235 | Pelham, AL |
| 80 | Jaxon Shuttlesworth | TE | JR | 6'5" | 235 | Chelsea, AL |
| 81 | Kaleb Edwards | TE | SO | 6'6" | 264 | El Dorado Hills, CA |
| 85 | Jack Sammarco | TE | JR | 6'5" | 268 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 86 | Jude Cascone | TE | FR | 6'3" | 224 | Marietta, GA |
| 87 | Danny Lewis | TE | SR | 6'5" | 260 | New Iberia, LA |
| 88 | Jay Lindsey | TE | JR | 6'5" | 258 | Butler, AL |
| 50 | Casey Poe | OL | JR | 6'4" | 328 | Lindale, TX |
| 52 | Mal Waldrep Jr. | OL | SO | 6'5" | 324 | Seale, AL |
| 53 | Mac Smith | OL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Birmingham, AL |
| 54 | Jayvin James | OL | SR | 6'5" | 317 | Deerfield Beach, FL |
| 55 | Racin Delgatty | OL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | La Canada Flintridge, CA |
| 57 | Bear Fretwell | OL | FR | 6'7" | 305 | Brooklet, GA |
| 59 | JD Martin | OL | JR | 6'2" | 266 | Pisgah, AL |
| 62 | Davis Peterson | OL | SR | 6'1" | 268 | Birmingham, AL |
| 63 | Bryson Cooley | OL | FR | 6'6" | 328 | Laurel, MS |
| 64 | Michael Carroll | OL | SO | 6'6" | 324 | Bradenton, FL |
| 65 | Tyrell Miller | OL | JR | 6'5" | 312 | Union City, CA |
| 66 | Jared Graham | OL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Atlanta, GA |
| 68 | Billy Roby | OL | SR | 5'11" | 280 | Huntsville, AL |
| 69 | Baker Hickman | OL | SR | 6'3" | 334 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 70 | William Sanders | OL | JR | 6'3" | 321 | Brookwood, AL |
| 71 | Nick Brooks | OL | SO | 6'7" | 333 | Cedar Rapids, IA |
| 72 | Ty Haywood | OL | SO | 6'5" | 318 | Denton, TX |
| 73 | Chris Booker | OL | FR | 6'4" | 288 | Atlanta, GA |
| 75 | Ethan Fields | OL | SR | 6'3" | 313 | Geismar, LA |
| 77 | Jackson Lloyd | OL | SO | 6'7" | 326 | Carmel, CA |
| 79 | Kaden Strayhorn | OL | SO | 6'2" | 310 | Novi, MI |
| 1 | Devan Thompkins | DL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Tracy, CA |
| 14 | Fatutoa Henry | DL | SR | 6'4" | 272 | Lawndale, CA |
| 22 | Kedrick Bingley-Jones | DL | SR | 6'4" | 302 | Concord, NC |
| 25 | Steve Bolo Mboumoua | DL | JR | 6'4" | 303 | St. Augustin, PQ |
| 26 | Mhari Johnson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Muscle Shoals, AL |
| 32 | Corey Howard Jr. | DL | FR | 6'6" | 288 | Valdosta, GA |
| 44 | Nolan Wilson | DL | FR | 6'5" | 285 | Picayune, MS |
| 88 | Isaia Faga | DL | JR | 6'2" | 291 | Phenix City, AL |
| 90 | London Simmons | DL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Jackson, MS |
| 91 | Caleb Smith | DL | SO | 6'5" | 280 | Birmingham, AL |
| 92 | Jeremiah Beaman | DL | JR | 6'4" | 301 | Birmingham, AL |
| 93 | Malique Franklin | DL | FR | 6'6" | 275 | Daphne, AL |
| 94 | Edric Hill | DL | SR | 6'3" | 292 | Kansas City, MO |
| 95 | Leslie Black | DL | SR | 6'5" | 290 | Statesboro, GA |
| 99 | Terrance Green | DL | SR | 6'5" | 313 | Cypress, TX |
| 0 | Yhonzae Pierre | LB | SR | 6'3" | 251 | Eufaula, AL |
| 4 | Luke Metz | LB | SO | 6'3" | 235 | Hoschton, GA |
| 7 | Caleb Woodson | LB | SR | 6'3" | 240 | Haymarket, VA |
| 8 | Justin Hill | LB | SO | 6'3" | 245 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 9 | Desmond Umeozulu | LB | SR | 6'6" | 255 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 11 | Xavier Griffin | LB | FR | 6'3" | 228 | Gainesville, GA |
| 15 | Duke Johnson II | LB | SO | 6'1" | 233 | Eastman, GA |
| 20 | Jah-Marien Latham | LB | SR | 6'3" | 273 | Reform, AL |
| 23 | Cayden Jones | LB | JR | 6'4" | 233 | Asheville, NC |
| 30 | Bubba Odom | LB | SR | 6'4" | 240 | Parrish, AL |
| 34 | Zay Hall | LB | FR | 6'3" | 236 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 35 | Abduall Sanders Jr. | LB | SO | 6'2" | 231 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 36 | QB Reese | LB | JR | 6'0" | 230 | Birmingham, AL |
| 39 | Jake Ivie | LB | SR | 6'0" | 188 | Alabaster, AL |
| 40 | Torin Craig | LB | JR | 6'2" | 180 | Woodberry Forest, VA |
| 41 | Jamarion Matthews | LB | FR | 6'2" | 254 | Huntsville, AL |
| 82 | Lane Whisenhunt | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Vestavia Hills, AL |
| 2 | Zabien Brown | DB | JR | 6'0" | 194 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 3 | Keon Sabb | DB | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Glassboro, NJ |
| 5 | Dijon Lee Jr. | DB | SO | 6'4" | 202 | Carson, CA |
| 6 | Red Morgan | DB | JR | 6'0" | 191 | Phenix City, AL |
| 10 | Jireh Edwards | DB | FR | 6'2" | 218 | Largo, MD |
| 12 | Zavier Mincey | DB | JR | 6'3" | 206 | Daytona Beach, FL |
| 13 | Ivan Taylor | DB | SO | 6'0" | 198 | Winter Garden, FL |
| 16 | Jorden Edmonds | DB | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Marietta, GA |
| 17 | Zyan Gibson | DB | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Gadsden, AL |
| 18 | Bray Hubbard | DB | SR | 6'2" | 215 | Ocean Springs, MS |
| 19 | Chuck McDonald III | DB | SO | 6'1" | 199 | Santa Ana, CA |
| 21 | Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. | DB | JR | 5'11" | 207 | Gadsden, AL |
| 24 | Rihyael Kelley | DB | FR | 6'3" | 205 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 27 | Walter Sansing III | DB | SR | 5'10" | 182 | Homewood, AL |
| 28 | Carmelo O'Neal | DB | JR | 6'4" | 210 | Atlanta, GA |
| 29 | Nick Sherman | DB | JR | 6'3" | 201 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 31 | George French II | DB | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Birmingham, AL |
| 32 | Griffin Hanson | DB | JR | 5'10" | 177 | Florence, AL |
| 34 | London Hill | DB | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Mobile, AL |
| 38 | Brody McCutcheon | DB | SO | 6'1" | 180 | Moody, AL |
| 43 | Camryn Gable | DB | SO | 5'10" | 170 | Mobile, AL |
| 31 | Conor Talty | PK | SR | 6'1" | 201 | Chicago, IL |
| 90 | Lorcan Quinn | PK | SO | 6'1" | 196 | Donaghmore |
| 98 | Tucker Cornelius | PK | JR | 6'3" | 207 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 32 | Alex Asparuhov | P | SO | 6'3" | 202 | Fresno, CA |
| 33 | Adam Watford | P | SR | 5'11" | 188 | Dothan, AL |
| 95 | Anderson Green | P | JR | 6'0" | 201 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 45 | Jay Williams | LS | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Ringgold, GA |
| 47 | Eli Deutsch | LS | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Franklin, WI |
| 55 | Alex Rozier | LS | SR | 6'4" | 215 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 61 | Ethan Stangle | LS | SR | 6'1" | 219 | Bel Air, MD |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Alabama throws it: Kalen DeBoer's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 10th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −14.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensethrowing it#10projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Defensefirst and second down#12projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.13#60
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.11 / 1.02
- Power / stuff (off)
- 75.0% / 16.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 20.4%#41
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 13.9% / 6.5%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.10#62 | 0.20#73 | 0.68#56 |
| Defense | -0.14#49 | 0.09#68 | -0.60#2 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2961st
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2088th
- Offense success rate53%72nd
- Defense success rate allowed22%92nd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs54%66th
- Offense success — passing downs48%85th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs20%96th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs25%55th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.129th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.510th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8419th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.940th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.357th
- Defense line yards allowed0.1399th
- Offense highlight yards0.6738th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0099th
- Offense power success0.8369th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.1745th
- Defense stuff rate0.3793rd
Third down
- Third down conversion53%69th
- Third down distance faced7.139th
- Third down conversion allowed0%99th
- Third down distance forced9.490th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.2371st
- Net success rate — second half0.3591st
Drives
- Points per drive4.186th
- Points per drive allowed0.2791st
- Average starting field position3064th
- Opponent starting field position2851st
- Available yards gained67%81st
- Available yards allowed23%91st
- Scoring opportunities per drive90%70th
- Scoring opportunities allowed73%68th
- Points per scoring opportunity4.688th
- Points allowed per opportunity1.385th
- Three-and-out rate20%66th
- Three-and-outs forced45%88th
Roster
- Returning usage30%36th
- Returning EPA12056th
- Team talent composite97498th
- Recruiting class rank2.099th
- Recruiting class points30499th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.125 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 39.5%
- Expected, given the spots
- 50.1%
- Over expected
- -10.6
- Fourth down vs peers
- +19
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Alabama is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Alabama in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 11-4 | 7-1 | 73% | 9.1 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 12-2 | 9-0 | 86% | 11.3 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 13-2 | 8-1 | 87% | 11.0 | +2.0 |
| 2020 | 13-0 | 11-0 | 100% | 12.6 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 11.4 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 14-1 | 9-0 | 93% | 13.5 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 13-1 | 8-1 | 93% | 12.8 | +0.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 8.3-3.9. Top-four bye in 9.9%. Wins the SEC in 7.4%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 8.1 points since preseason — won 48-10 over East Carolina against an expected margin of +22, so +15.7 against the number.
- At 3 losses they are 30% where the average SEC team is 41%.
- The SEC takes 3.83 bids in an average season, and four or more in 65%.
Alabama’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk10at LSU38.2
- wk6vs Georgia34.9
- wk8vs Texas A&M34.8
- wk7at Tennessee32.5
- wk4vs South Carolina31.3
- wk11at Vanderbilt29.5
Who to root for
Games Alabama is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Navy over Notre Dame3.2
- wk11Northwestern over Ohio State2.6
- wk8Auburn over LSU2.6
- wk3Arkansas over Georgia2.5
- wk2Oklahoma State over Oregon2.3
- wk7Auburn over Georgia2.3
SEC
0-0 in league play, projected 5.4-3.65 of 16 by title oddsThe SEC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 48% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk10Alabama at LSU14.7
- wk6Georgia at Alabama12.4
- wk8Texas A&M at Alabama10.3
- wk7Alabama at Tennessee9.7
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole SEC race →
If not the playoff, then
Alabama is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 0.6% they go with five wins, as a 5-7 fill-in — which in reality is decided by academic progress rate, not by anything modelled here.
- Citrus Bowl9.6%
- ReliaQuest Bowl9.1%
- Gator Bowl8.6%
- Duke's Mayo Bowl7.9%
- Music City Bowl6.8%
- Texas Bowl6.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 26 have sent Alabama a player since 2010 — 63 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Alabama's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.