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North Dakota State

North Dakota State Bison

Mountain West·3-0·
Compare
Elo
1562#49
SP+
2.6#61
FPI
0.2
AP
NR
Next@ Sacramento State · Wk 3Win prob 34%Model +6.8
Talent #131 (515.6)Recruiting class #117

Team Leaders

Roster · 130 players

FR 57SO 27JR 25SR 21
#PlayerPosClHtWt
0Preston BrownQBSO6'1"215
2Nathan HayesQBSR6'3"228
10Trey DrakeQBJR6'3"213
13Zander SmithQBFR6'3"225
16Henry NelsonQBFR6'3"210
4Nyeoti PunniRBSR6'1"225
5Myles MitchellRBFR5'9"205
7DJ ScottRBJR5'11"215
8Barika KpeenuRBSO5'10"199
8Braylon ToliverRBFR5'11"195
22Charles Ross IIIRBFR5'9"200
25Godson Rufus-OkomhanruRBFR6'0"187
26Brady WavrunekRBJR5'11"213
28Cortez LeGrantRBJR5'10"200
32Barry KpeenuRBSO5'10"205
34Jonathan HarveyRBSR5'10"200
45Gatlin EmpeyFBFR6'1"235
3Jeremiah PattersonWRSR5'9"175
11Jordan McCantsWRSR5'11"190
12Myles EllisWRFR5'9"160
15Mekhi CollinsWRSR6'4"215
17Isiah St. RomainWRSO6'0"200
18Jackson WilliamsWRJR5'11"185
19John GoresWRSR5'6"175
20Drake SchlosserWRFR6'1"195
21Chris KielWRFR5'11"205
23Kye SchlichtingWRFR6'3"201
27Joaquin JordanWRFR6'3"196
30Kelly WatsonWRJR5'11"195
80Jacob KilzerWRSO6'3"205
82SJ GreenWRFR5'10"185
83Cade OstermanWRJR6'1"192
84Logan ConklinWRSO6'4"205
86Dylan VokalWRFR6'2"202
87Brandon WaltonWRFR6'2"181
89Tochi OkoroWRJR6'3"195
9Gabriel CunninghamTEFR6'3"242
40Kaden ZenzenTESR6'4"250
43Cash DannerTEFR6'5"235
44Luke KokatTESR6'3"250
46Caden WardTEFR6'3"230
49Colten GundersonTEFR6'7"240
81Reis KesselTESO6'5"245
85Jett ZabelTESO6'3"235
87Noah NelsonTEFR6'5"240
88Isaac EllisonTEFR6'4"225
96Abraham MyersTEJR6'2"250
55Kene AneneOLSO6'5"310
63Trey McPartlandOLFR6'5"285
67Earl BrownOLFR6'5"310
70Tucker ThienemanOLFR6'4"291
57Gavin WangOTFR6'7"298
73Alex WardenOTFR6'6"280
75Josh MaginOTSR6'6"308
76Ryan BabatzOTSO6'5"315
77Austin SchultzOTJR6'4"305
78Noah StommesOTSO6'6"300
59James NellisGFR6'3"290
62Griffin EmpeyGJR6'3"302
66Jack LiwienskiGJR6'3"297
68Coy OkesonGSO6'5"310
71Nate TastadGSO6'5"303
72Nate SchnecklothGJR6'5"300
74Brett TastadGFR6'5"298
61Gage SchmidtCSO6'3"300
0Victor IseleDEJR6'2"260
9Kelton McCaslinDESR6'5"250
11Matthew StenbrotenDESO6'4"250
48Blake SchiltzDEFR6'2"250
56Allante BurleyDESR6'3"240
90Truman GriffithDESO6'2"260
91Ethan WoodDEFR6'4"255
92Daniel DevineDEFR6'4"245
93Anthony OkesDEJR6'3"260
97Simon VintonDEFR6'5"240
8Keenan WilsonDTJR6'1"290
53Chase EvinkDTFR6'5"285
54Alijah WayneDTSO6'4"290
58Zach HellendrungDTFR6'3"275
60Thomas RobertsDTFR6'4"275
64Jason HunterDTFR6'5"265
65Brody ClubbDTFR6'3"290
69Skyler WernerDTFR6'2"270
94Logan LarsonDTSR6'3"290
95Zach VanderpoolDTSO6'5"285
98Jack HansenDTSO6'3"282
99Obald NiyonkuruDTJR5'11"290
1Donovan WoolenLBJR6'4"230
3Gavin SellLBFR6'2"230
21Noah TaylorLBJR6'0"228
25Ray James Jr.LBSO6'2"240
35Ryland SatterLBSO6'1"235
38Ben ScheppLBFR6'1"210
41Peder HaugoLBSO6'1"230
42Alex ElliottLBJR6'2"220
44Carter ApplLBFR6'2"215
46Jack WilsonLBFR6'2"225
47Jacob WrbanekLBFR6'4"228
50Damian DevineLBFR6'3"230
52Keith WilliamsLBJR6'1"240
55Oliver LuchtLBJR6'1"228
2EJ DavisCBSO6'1"190
4Najee NelsonCBJR5'11"197
7Chance TuckerCBSR6'0"190
12DJ VoltzCBSR6'1"180
16Marion MooreCBFR5'11"190
19Will RosenmeyerCBSO6'0"188
23Kegan HuberCBSR6'0"190
24Kobe RussellCBFR6'1"197
28Kendrick CarterCBFR5'10"179
31Q BarnslaterCBFR6'0"170
32Brayden DozierCBFR6'0"189
34Deron RussellCBFR6'1"180
6Jaylin CrumbySJR5'11"200
13Mikhale FordSFR5'11"190
14Taylen EadySSO6'0"205
20Will SteilSSO6'2"205
22Hudson ArtzSSR6'0"205
26Evrett TaitSFR6'0"205
27Landon MeierSSO5'11"195
29Darius GivanceSSR6'2"215
30Jaylen ArchibaldSFR6'1"205
33Walker BraatenSFR6'3"190
36Gunner ThielgesSFR6'1"201
37Drew KleinPKSR5'9"185
38Jayden OnuongaPKFR6'4"205
39Aaron BickertonPSR6'3"225
51Caleb McGrathPJR6'3"205
48CJ AndersonLSSR6'1"240
57Gabe VernettiLSFR5'11"232

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
36.3
scoring offense
Points allowed
13.0
scoring defense
Differential
+23.3
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
373.0#90
Yards / play
5.5#95
Passing yards / game
204.5#90
Rushing yards / game
168.5#64
First downs / game
21.0#66
3rd down %
42.9%#67
4th down %
83.3%#34
Time of possession
34:47#16
Defense
Yards allowed / game
152.5#8
Yards / play allowed
3.0#9
Pass yards allowed / game
100.5#10
Rush yards allowed / game
52.0#13
3rd down % allowed
27.3%#36
Sacks
6#12
Tackles for loss
9#59
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+5#4
Takeaways
6#3
Giveaways
1#31
Penalties / game
8.5#107
Penalty yards / game
69.5#108

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

North Dakota State is in year 1 under Tim Polasek. No unit here sits far enough from the national average to build a plan around — nothing to lean on, and nothing obvious to attack.

North Dakota State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 9 to play
8.1 – 3.9
projected final record (now 3–0)
Exp. wins left
5.1
of 9 games
Bowl odds
98%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
90%
vs UTEP
Toughest
19%
vs Hawai'i

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

3456789101112
final winstallest bar = 32% chance
Likeliest finish 8-4 (32%)Bowl eligible 98% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRMekhi Collins, Jordan McCants +3
+16.8 EPA
QBNathan Hayes
+15.9 EPA
RBDJ Scott, Nyeoti Punni +1
+14.8 EPA
TELuke Kokat, Reis Kessel
-0.6 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBNathan Hayes
~$785K
EPA +15.90.300/play53 snaps
RBDJ Scott
~$246K
EPA +9.40.391/play24 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3056th#61
Def-0.4099th#2
Explosiveness
Off1.1426th#102
Def1.0385th#22
Field position
Off70.960th#56
Def72.650th#70
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.3861st#55
Def-1.0099th#1
Turnovers
Won 6Lost 1
Margin +5

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3353rd#66
Off · rush
0.2669th#43

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.2669th#43
Def-0.3895th#8
Passing
Off0.3350th#69
Def-0.4499th#3

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.33#45
2nd-level / open-field
1.05 / 0.96
Power / stuff (off)
66.7% / 10.9%
Havoc — total (def)
21.0%#36
Havoc — front 7 / DB
14.3% / 6.7%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.23
Def-0.20
Pass downs
Off0.47
Def-0.72

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.24#310.20#730.41#92
Defense-0.27#27-0.49#4-0.45#5

Elo Trajectory

Jacksonville State@San José State
Elo rating 1500 → 1566+66 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 41 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2450th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.3197th
  • Offense success rate46%49th
  • Defense success rate allowed30%73rd

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs52%54th
  • Offense success — passing downs28%31st
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs41%58th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs12%93rd

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.239th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed0.9985th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9331st
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.591st

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.045th
  • Defense line yards allowed1.785th
  • Offense highlight yards0.7743rd
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.3469th
  • Offense power success0.7550th
  • Defense power success allowed0.5369th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1843rd
  • Defense stuff rate0.2155th

Third down

  • Third down conversion46%54th
  • Third down distance faced6.072nd
  • Third down conversion allowed32%61st
  • Third down distance forced8.065th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1761st
  • Net success rate — second half0.0648th

Drives

  • Points per drive2.664th
  • Points per drive allowed0.0098th
  • Average starting field position2318th
  • Opponent starting field position3223rd
  • Available yards gained47%52nd
  • Available yards allowed31%84th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive80%51st
  • Scoring opportunities allowed50%96th
  • Points per scoring opportunity3.367th
  • Points allowed per opportunity1.482nd
  • Three-and-out rate30%45th
  • Three-and-outs forced10%16th

Roster

  • Team talent composite5165th
  • Recruiting class rank11715th
  • Recruiting class points16715th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.296#61 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.330#69
Rush EPA/play
+0.256#43
Explosiveness
1.142#102
Pts/opportunity
4.38#55
Success rate
48.0%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.074 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense — top 2 nationally in EPA/play allowed
EPA/play allowed
-0.404#2 · elite
Havoc rate (total)
21.0%#36
Front-7 havoc
14.3%
DB havoc
6.7%
Big play rate allowed
1.029#22
Success rate allowed
28.2%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

36.3 PPG offense, 13.0 allowed — +23.3 margin/game
Points per game
36.3
Points allowed/game
13.0
Scoring margin/game
+23.3
Turnover margin
+5won 6 · lost 1
Talent rank (247)
#131

3-0 record through 3 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE56thEXPLOSIVENESS26thFINISHING61thFIELD POS60thDEFENSE99thHAVOC74th50th100th
Offense
56th
Explosiveness
26th
Finishing
61th
Field Pos
60th
Defense
99th
Havoc
74th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+10.8
#35
Offense
+2.8
#48
Defense
-8.0
#24
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 10 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive2.600.00
Starting field positionown 23.3own 31.7
Available yards47.3%31.0%
Scoring opportunities80.0%50.0%
Points per opportunity3.251.40
Three-and-out rate30.0%10.0%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
42.6%
Expected, given the spots
49.1%
Over expected
-6.6
Fourth down vs peers
+20
Fourth down vs the model
+50
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. North Dakota State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to North Dakota State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
IowaSP+ +18.0
Off EPA/play +0.332Def EPA/play -0.330Elo 1847
Match
96%
Georgia SouthernSP+ -5.8
Off EPA/play +0.363Def EPA/play -0.315Elo 1376
Match
94%
LSUSP+ +23.3
Off EPA/play +0.376Def EPA/play -0.490Elo 1745
Match
94%
Kansas StateSP+ +12.7
Off EPA/play +0.314Def EPA/play -0.219Elo 1616
Match
90%
Air ForceSP+ +1.1
Off EPA/play +0.371Def EPA/play -0.215Elo 1424
Match
89%
Kennesaw StateSP+ -7.4
Off EPA/play +0.486Def EPA/play -0.253Elo 1373
Match
88%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-00-0
100%
2.0+0.0
202512-18-0
92%
12.2-0.2
202414-28-1
88%
13.1+0.9
202311-46-3
73%
11.1-0.1
202212-37-2
80%
12.4-0.4
202114-18-1
93%
——
20207-35-2
70%
——
201916-09-0
100%
——
201815-09-0
100%
——
201714-17-1
93%
——

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-0 so far, projected to finish 3.9-8.1.

If they finish with…

0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

up 0.0 points since preseason — won 33-7 over Jacksonville State against an expected margin of −30, so +55.7 against the number.

  • The Mountain West takes 0.23 bids in an average season.
The full playoff picture →

Mountain West

0-0 in league play, projected 1.3-7.710 of 10 by title odds
0.0%
Wins the Mountain West
0.1%
Reaches the title game

The Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 35% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →

If not the playoff, then

13%
Bowl eligible
11%
Placed in a bowl
0%
In the playoff
89%
Season over in November

North Dakota State is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Hawai'i Bowl3.6%
  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl3.6%
  • Arizona Bowl2.0%
  • New Mexico Bowl0.5%
  • Xbox Bowl0.4%
  • Cure Bowl0.3%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.