North Dakota State vs. Sacramento State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Neither side projects a clear way in. North Dakota State and Sacramento State rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest in the push up front — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
North Dakota State
North Dakota State is in year 1 under Tim Polasek. No unit here sits far enough from the national average to build a plan around — nothing to lean on, and nothing obvious to attack.
North Dakota State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Sacramento State
Sacramento State is in year 1 under Alonzo Carter. No unit here sits far enough from the national average to build a plan around — nothing to lean on, and nothing obvious to attack.
Sacramento State has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SAC Elo 1466, NDSU Elo 1566 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SAC -6.8 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NDSU95th41stSACSAC98th9thNDSUThrough the air
NDSU90th54thSACSAC66th10thNDSUOn the ground
NDSU64th41stSACSAC97th13thNDSUStaying on the field
NDSU67th23rdSACSAC101st36thNDSUTaking care of it
NDSU31st53rdSACSAC118th3rdNDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NDSU | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.8 (#35) | CORE overall | -11.0 (#113) |
| +3 / -8 | offense / defense | -9 / +2 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 0.83 |
| 0.00 | allowed / drive | 1.50 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 50% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +18 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win North Dakota State vs. Sacramento State?
Gridpex's model favors Sacramento State with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Dakota State vs. Sacramento State?
The model projects Sacramento State by 6.8.
What time is North Dakota State vs. Sacramento State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM ET, at Hornet Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →