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Wild at Avalanche
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Final/OTTV TNT, truTV·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Minnesota Wild 4-3 in overtime, Brett Kulak scoring at 3:52. The Avalanche came back from three goals down. The Wild led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brett Kulak's goal at 3:52 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.4 to 1.8; shots on goal were MIN 20, COL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Jesper Wallstedt stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 0.6 goals below expected; Scott Wedgewood stopped 7 of 7 (1.000). Three stars: 1. Brett Kulak (1 G, 1 A), 2. Martin Necas (2 A), 3. Nick Foligno (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    B. Kulak1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Necas2 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    N. Foligno2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
MINMIN313030400320
COLCOL012192914434

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    M. Johansson(4)
    M. Boldy (5), Q. Hughes (11)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:34
  2. MIN
    N. Foligno(1)
    N. Sturm (3), K. Kaprizov (11)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    11:03
  3. MIN
    N. Foligno(2)
    N. Sturm (4), M. Boldy (6)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-0
    15:56

2nd period

  1. COL
    P. Kelly(2)
    B. Burns (2), B. Kulak (4)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-1
    11:00

3rd period

  1. COL
    J. Drury(2)
    D. Toews (6), N. Roy (3)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-2
    16:27
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(7)
    M. Necas (9), B. Burns (3)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +47 ptsVideo
    3-3
    18:37

Overtime

  1. COL
    B. Kulak(1)
    M. Necas (10), P. Kelly (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +48 ptsVideo
    3-4
    3:52

Penalties

MIN 2 PIM·COL 2 PIM

1st

  • 12:26COLGabriel Landeskog · Hookingdrawn by Marcus Johansson2 min

2nd

  • 16:52MINDanila Yurov · High stickingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalMIN goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Brett Kulak, OT 3:52 — COL 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.28N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.18B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.17N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.14G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.11R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.10R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.10N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.09M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.09J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.09J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.07B. Kulak · Goal · xG 0.07P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.07J. Drury · Goal · xG 0.07M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.06M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.05P. Kelly · Goal · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.04B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.04G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.02P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · Missed · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.00J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.00J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 3.4 xG · 63 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsCOL
1.83 G
All situations
4 G3.4
1.23 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN24%76%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.82 – 3.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsCOL
20
Shots on goal
34
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
31
Hits
32
23
Blocked shots
11
12
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7B. FaberD000000.01020—32:06
43Q. HughesD011+120.02120—30:35
12M. BoldyL022-150.3730010022:55
46J. SpurgeonD000-110.02240—22:48
97K. KaprizovL011+100.18120—22:36
5J. MiddletonD000-200.00330—21:55
36M. ZuccarelloR000-100.03120—18:57
38R. HartmanR000-130.481003318:34
47M. McCarronC000000.111106317:31
90M. JohanssonL101010.09010—16:15
22D. YurovR000010.100021713:08
78N. SturmC022+120.022106412:54
71N. FolignoL202030.273104012:45
13Y. TreninC000-110.10400012:34
17M. FolignoL000-100.00520—11:59
91V. TarasenkoR000010.04210—11:03
48D. HuntD000000.00110—10:13
2J. PetryD000000.00100—09:03
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30J. Wallstedt(L)34304.8823.44-0.5663:21

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).