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Wild at Avalanche
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
6
Colorado Avalanche
▸9
FinalTV TNT, truTV·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Minnesota Wild 9-6. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 5-5 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cale Makar's goal at 3:21 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.2 to 3.3; shots on goal were MIN 36, COL 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Jesper Wallstedt stopped 34 of 42 (.810), 4.2 goals below expected; Scott Wedgewood stopped 30 of 36 (.833), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (2 G, 1 A), 2. Devon Toews (1 G, 3 A), 3. Martin Necas (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Makar2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    D. Toews1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Necas3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN29316111636
COLCOL316214413943

Scoring

15 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    S. Malinski(1)
    M. Necas (3), D. Toews (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:12
  2. COL
    J. Drury(1)
    L. O'Connor (1)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:04
  3. COL
    A. Lehkonen(3)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (3), M. Necas (4)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-3
    13:13
  4. MIN
    M. Johansson(2)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.32win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    15:02
  5. MIN
    R. Hartman(2)
    Q. Hughes (7), K. Kaprizov (8)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:04

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. Blankenburg(1)
    V. Nichushkin (1), C. Makar (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-4
    4:16
  2. MIN
    V. Tarasenko(2)
    Y. Trenin (2), M. McCarron (1)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    6:45
  3. MIN
    Q. Hughes(3)
    D. Yurov (1)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +19 ptsVideo
    4-4
    12:43
  4. MIN
    M. Foligno(2)SHG
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.46win prob +24 ptsVideo
    5-4
    16:55
  5. COL
    D. Toews(2)
    V. Nichushkin (2), S. Malinski (2)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +23 ptsVideo
    5-5
    18:04

3rd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(3)
    N. MacKinnon (4), G. Landeskog (3)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +25 ptsVideo
    5-6
    3:21
  2. COL
    N. Kadri(1)
    R. Colton (1), D. Toews (4)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    5-7
    5:43
  3. MIN
    M. Zuccarello(2)
    M. Boldy (4), Q. Hughes (8)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +8 ptsVideo
    6-7
    16:01
  4. COL
    C. Makar(4)
    D. Toews (5), M. Necas (5)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +6 ptsVideo
    6-8
    17:06
  5. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)EN
    A. Lehkonen (3)
    wristxG 0.47Video
    6-9
    17:52

Penalties

MIN 8 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 8:14COLNazem Kadri · Holdingdrawn by Jake Middleton2 min
  • 12:24MINBrock Faber · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 12:24MINBrock Faber · Cross checkingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 12:24COLGabriel Landeskog · Roughingdrawn by Brock Faber2 min

2nd

  • 0:21COLArtturi Lehkonen · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 16:01MINBrock Faber · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 8:53COLGabriel Landeskog · Closing hand on puck2 min
  • 10:53COLCale Makar · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 10:53MINRyan Hartman · Holdingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalMIN goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Cale Makar, 3rd 3:21 — COL 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.47A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.22B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.21N. Blankenburg · Goal · xG 0.17J. Drury · Goal · xG 0.16L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.16L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.16S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.16A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.15N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.14N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.14P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.14V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.12B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.11L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.10B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.10L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.08B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.06G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.06C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.06M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.04V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.04N. Blankenburg · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.03S. Malinski · Goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.01S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · Missed · xG 0.01B. Kulak · Missed · xG 0.01S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.01R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.00
COL9 G · 4.2 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsCOL
3.36 G
All situations
8 G4.2
2.55 G
Even strength
7 G3.4
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.51 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN43%57%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 3.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsCOL
36
Shots on goal
43
63%
Faceoffs
37%
0/3
Power play
1/2
8
Penalty minutes
10
24
Hits
26
12
Blocked shots
11
17
Giveaways
17
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43Q. HughesD123020.04010—28:57
7B. FaberD000-150.13006—25:31
97K. KaprizovL011-210.31110—21:46
12M. BoldyL011030.252208020:27
36M. ZuccarelloR101-220.22000—19:45
46J. SpurgeonD000-310.00210—18:11
5J. MiddletonD000-320.06110—16:42
91V. TarasenkoR101020.32110—16:25
38R. HartmanR101-270.772025516:00
24Z. BogosianD000+100.00100—15:02
47M. McCarronC011-120.030207314:22
48D. HuntD000+110.01120—14:14
90M. JohanssonL101+110.32100—13:35
71N. FolignoL000-110.003006712:03
13Y. TreninC011010.04500011:40
78N. SturmC000-220.040105711:15
22D. YurovR011+200.001004011:10
17M. FolignoL101030.73300—10:38
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30J. Wallstedt(L)42348.8103.77-4.2359:28

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).