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Avalanche at Wild
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Minnesota Wild
2
FinalTV ESPN, CBC·Grand Casino Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Minnesota Wild 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Parker Kelly's goal at 11:32 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were COL 34, MIN 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 19 of 21 (.905), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Jesper Wallstedt stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Parker Kelly (1 G), 2. Jesper Wallstedt (29 saves, .906), 3. Nazem Kadri (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    P. Kelly1 G
  2. ★★
    MIN
    J. Wallstedt29 saves, .906
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. Kadri1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL010111413534
MINMIN140819221

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    D. Yurov(1)PPG
    B. Faber (6), V. Tarasenko (3)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:46

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(2)PPG
    M. Necas (7)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:08

3rd period

  1. COL
    R. Colton(1)
    N. Roy (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +29 ptsVideo
    2-1
    6:56
  2. MIN
    N. Sturm(1)
    Q. Hughes (10)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +32 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:15
  3. COL
    P. Kelly(1)
    J. Drury (2)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +35 ptsVideo
    3-2
    11:32
  4. COL
    N. MacKinnon(6)EN
    M. Necas (8)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:27
  5. COL
    B. Nelson(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.61Video
    5-2
    19:52

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·MIN 8 PIM

1st

  • 0:48MINDanila Yurov · Roughingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 0:48COLRoss Colton · Roughingdrawn by Danila Yurov2 min
  • 7:07COLJosh Manson · Butt ending double minordrawn by Michael McCarron4 min

2nd

  • 2:42MINZach Bogosian · Interferencedrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 6:01MINYakov Trenin · Closing hand on puck2 min
  • 10:48COLserved by R. Colton · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:39COLParker Kelly · Cross checkingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min

3rd

  • 20:00MINMarcus Foligno · Cross checkingdrawn by Joel Kiviranta2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalCOL goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Parker Kelly, 3rd 11:32 — COL 48% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.47M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.31M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.20N. Sturm · On goal · xG 0.16B. Faber · Missed · xG 0.12N. Sturm · Goal · xG 0.12K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.10D. Yurov · Goal · xG 0.09N. Sturm · On goal · xG 0.08M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.08M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.08Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.07N. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.07M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.06D. Yurov · On goal · xG 0.06Q. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.05B. Faber · Missed · xG 0.05R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.05M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.04M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.03B. Faber · On goal · xG 0.02M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.02N. Sturm · Missed · xG 0.02M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.01B. Faber · Missed · xG 0.01N. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.01M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.01Q. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.00M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.00J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.00M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN2 G · 2.6 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsMIN
4.73 G
All situations
2 G2.6
2.92 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
0.61 G
Power play
1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL66%34%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.45 – 2.49

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsMIN
34
Shots on goal
21
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
32
Hits
29
12
Blocked shots
22
13
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD000+310.00020—28:25
8C. MakarD000+130.10010—26:09
27B. KulakD000+110.01000—21:42
88M. NecasC022+110.03200021:32
29N. MacKinnonC101+120.920001020:48
84B. BurnsD000+320.05220—19:47
92G. LandeskogL000+120.373105019:20
13V. NichushkinR000030.4922010019:09
11B. NelsonC101+230.860006717:00
91N. KadriC101050.693004516:13
42J. MansonD000-120.03104—14:39
25L. O'ConnorR000+110.22410—14:23
10N. RoyC011020.181005010:29
94J. KivirantaL000+110.03300—09:00
18J. DruryC011+100.0920010008:46
20R. ColtonC101040.57402008:39
17P. KellyC101+110.04302008:13
15J. AhcanD000-100.00230—07:07
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(W)21192.9052.58+0.5860:00

Series

COL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).