Sabres at Canadiens 8-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Buffalo Sabres

▸8

Montréal Canadiens

FinalTV ABC, CBC·Centre Bell

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Montréal Canadiens 8-3. The Sabres came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Konsta Helenius's goal at 12:59 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 67% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.7 to 2.2; shots on goal were BUF 36, MTL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 18 of 18 (1.000), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Jakub Dobes stopped 27 of 33 (.818), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 4 A), 2. Jack Quinn (2 G, 1 A), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G, 3 A).

Three stars

★
R. Dahlin1 G, 4 A
★★
J. Quinn2 G, 1 A
★★★
T. Thompson1 G, 3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	211	317	38	836
MTL	35	010	07	322

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

R. Dahlin(3)
M. Samuelsson (3), Z. Benson (4)
backhandxG 0.10win prob +11 ptsVideo
1-0
0:32
A. Xhekaj(1)
J. Evans (6)
snapxG 0.01win prob +11 ptsVideo
1-1
1:40
I. Demidov(2)PPG
L. Hutson (11), C. Caufield (5)
slapxG 0.11win prob +9 ptsVideo
1-2
8:12
J. Evans(2)SHG
M. Matheson (2)
snapxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-3
10:14
J. Zucker(2)PPG
J. Norris (2), J. Quinn (5)
snapxG 0.20win prob +10 ptsVideo
2-3
13:56

2nd period

Z. Benson(5)
T. Thompson (8), B. Byram (3)
backhandxG 0.11win prob +15 ptsVideo
3-3
1:00
J. Quinn(1)PPG
R. Dahlin (7), T. Thompson (9)
slapxG 0.05win prob +14 ptsVideo
4-3
10:54
K. Helenius(2)
J. Zucker (2), R. Dahlin (8)
snapxG 0.15win prob +18 ptsVideo
5-3
12:59

3rd period

J. Quinn(2)PPG
T. Thompson (10), R. Dahlin (9)
slapxG 0.07win prob +3 ptsVideo
6-3
9:58
T. Thompson(5)EN
Unassisted
snapxG 0.54Video
7-3
14:12
Z. Metsa(1)PPG
R. McLeod (3), R. Dahlin (10)
snapxG 0.06Video
8-3
17:49

Penalties

32 PIM·

58 PIM

1st

7:43Peyton Krebs · Roughingdrawn by Alex Newhook2 min
8:30Phillip Danault · Hookingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min
9:50Jakub Dobes · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
9:50Rasmus Dahlin · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Jakub Dobes2 min
11:47Mike Matheson · High sticking double minordrawn by Josh Norris4 min
17:17Josh Norris · Trippingdrawn by Lane Hutson2 min
17:17Lane Hutson · Embellishment2 min

2nd

7:08served by J. Quinn · Too many men on the ice2 min
10:10Alexandre Carrier · Interferencedrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
15:55Alex Tuch · Hookingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min

3rd

9:12Josh Anderson · Slashingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
17:16Arber Xhekaj · Interferencedrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
17:16Arber Xhekaj · Misconduct10 min
17:20Jake Evans · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
17:20Josh Norris · Slashingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min
17:20Zach Benson · Misconduct10 min
17:20Alexandre Carrier · Misconduct10 min
17:20Jake Evans · Misconduct10 min
17:52Kirby Dach · Misconduct10 min
17:52Peyton Krebs · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MTL

Biggest swing: Konsta Helenius, 2nd 12:59 — BUF 67% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.2 xG · 35 att

←

attacks

attacks →

8 G · 4.7 xG · 50 att MTL

3 G · 2.2 xG · 35 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.77 G
All situations: 3 G2.2; 2.73 G
Even strength: 1 G1.0; 1.54 G
Power play: 1 G1.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

79%21%

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.07 – 2.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

36
Shots on goal: 22; 61%
Faceoffs: 39%; 4/6
Power play: 1/3; 32
Penalty minutes: 58; 19
Hits: 31; 18
Blocked shots: 9; 18
Giveaways: 11; 3
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Buffalo Sabres skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
23M. SamuelssonD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	1	1	0	—	22:53
25O. PowerD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	22:22
71R. McLeodC	0	1	1	0	1	0.30	0	1	0	61	21:56
6Z. BensonL	1	1	2	+3	6	0.51	1	2	10	—	20:04
26R. DahlinD	1	4	5	+2	3	0.37	0	0	2	—	19:56
4B. ByramD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.29	3	1	0	—	19:53
89A. TuchR	0	0	0	-1	4	0.57	1	1	2	100	19:10
22J. QuinnR	2	1	3	+1	3	0.25	1	1	0	—	18:18
72T. ThompsonC	1	3	4	+3	6	1.17	3	0	0	50	18:14
21C. TimminsD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	5	0	—	17:26
91J. DoanR	0	0	0	0	2	0.22	1	0	0	100	16:31
9J. NorrisC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.26	3	0	4	65	15:27
17J. ZuckerL	1	1	2	0	2	0.41	1	0	0	—	13:29
94K. HeleniusC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.19	0	2	0	50	12:36
73Z. MetsaD	1	0	1	-1	1	0.06	0	1	0	—	12:19
29B. MalenstynL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	0	0	—	08:22
12J. GreenwayL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	50	08:15
19P. KrebsC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	12	50	06:25

Buffalo Sabres goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)	18	18	0	1.000	1.84	+1.84	49:41
34A. Lyon	4	1	3	.250	0.36	-2.64	10:14

Series

MTL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score