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Canadiens at Sabres
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV TNT, truTV·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Montréal Canadiens 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Greenway's goal at 3:32 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals were close — MTL 2.5, BUF 2.5; shots on goal were MTL 28, BUF 16. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Jakub Dobes stopped 12 of 16 (.750), 1.5 goals below expected; Alex Lyon stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Zach Benson (2 A), 2. Ryan McLeod (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jordan Greenway (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    Z. Benson2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    R. McLeod1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Greenway1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL1918011228
BUFBUF262901416

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Doan(2)
    Z. Benson (2)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:31
  2. BUF
    R. McLeod(1)PPG
    Z. Benson (3), J. Doan (3)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:26
  3. MTL
    N. Suzuki(2)PPG
    J. Slafkovský (1), I. Demidov (2)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    19:16

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Greenway(1)
    M. Samuelsson (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    3:32
  2. BUF
    B. Byram(4)PPG
    R. McLeod (2)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-4
    9:01
  3. MTL
    K. Dach(3)
    Z. Bolduc (4)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +7 ptsVideo
    2-4
    16:31

Penalties

MTL 6 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:30MTLLane Hutson · Trippingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 11:35MTLNick Suzuki · Trippingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min
  • 17:58BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Jake Evans2 min

2nd

  • 7:13MTLKaiden Guhle · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyson Kozak2 min
  • 9:11BUFBeck Malenstyn · High stickingdrawn by Lane Hutson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalMTL goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jordan Greenway, 2nd 3:32 — BUF 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Doan · Goal · xG 0.24A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.19T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.17R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.15R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.13J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.12J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.11Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.11B. Byram · Goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.09T. Kozak · Missed · xG 0.09R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.07A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.06R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.03B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.03A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.03J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.03J. Greenway · Goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.01
BUF4 G · 2.5 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsBUF
2.52 G
All situations
4 G2.5
1.51 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.91 G
Power play
2 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL50%50%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 2.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsBUF
28
Shots on goal
16
63%
Faceoffs
37%
1/2
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
31
Hits
27
12
Blocked shots
13
7
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
48L. HutsonD000040.20022—26:42
53N. DobsonD000020.04020—24:09
14N. SuzukiC101-130.462025621:02
8M. MathesonD000-110.03030—21:00
20J. SlafkovskýL011-140.41100—19:41
13C. CaufieldR000-120.07100—19:08
45A. CarrierD000-100.09000—18:45
21K. GuhleD000000.01232—18:22
93I. DemidovR011020.37100—18:19
15A. NewhookC000040.323003316:52
71J. EvansC000020.081106915:49
17J. AndersonR000000.00200—15:46
24P. DanaultC000010.163006915:20
85A. TexierL000010.0800010011:44
77K. DachC101010.13200009:46
76Z. BolducR011000.00500—08:53
90J. VelenoC000010.0350010008:33
72A. XhekajD000000.01310—07:42
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
75J. Dobes(L)16124.7502.51-1.4956:48

Series

MTL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).