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Canadiens at Sabres
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV TNT, HBO MAX·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-1. The Canadiens scored first and never trailed. The Canadiens led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mike Matheson's goal at 4:27 of the first period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 58% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were MTL 28, BUF 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Jakub Dobes stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Alex Lyon stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Newhook (2 G), 2. Jakub Dobes (28 saves, .966), 3. Zach Benson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MTL
    A. Newhook2 G
  2. ★★
    MTL
    J. Dobes28 saves, .966
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Benson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL2131827528
BUFBUF08111010129

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. MTL
    A. Newhook(2)
    K. Guhle (5), L. Hutson (5)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:36
  2. MTL
    M. Matheson(1)
    P. Danault (2)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    4:27

2nd period

  1. MTL
    A. Newhook(3)
    J. Evans (2), N. Dobson (1)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-0
    4:47
  2. BUF
    Z. Benson(3)
    C. Timmins (1), J. Doan (4)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-1
    19:22

3rd period

  1. MTL
    A. Carrier(1)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.13win prob +7 ptsVideo
    4-1
    3:54
  2. MTL
    N. Suzuki(3)EN
    J. Anderson (2)
    snapxG 0.49Video
    5-1
    15:59

Penalties

MTL 22 PIM·BUF 12 PIM

1st

  • 7:34MTLAlexandre Carrier · Trippingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 11:47BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Lane Hutson2 min
  • 19:50BUFJosh Doan · Interferencedrawn by Noah Dobson2 min

2nd

  • 2:43MTLAlexandre Carrier · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 5:33MTLArber Xhekaj · Slashingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 9:36BUFMattias Samuelsson · Trippingdrawn by Nick Suzuki2 min
  • 14:38MTLserved by Ivan Demidov · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:04MTLKaiden Guhle · Roughingdrawn by Logan Stanley2 min
  • 17:04BUFLogan Stanley · Roughingdrawn by Kaiden Guhle2 min

3rd

  • 13:08BUFBowen Byram · Elbowingdrawn by Zachary Bolduc2 min
  • 17:18MTLJosh Anderson · Cross checkingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 17:18MTLJosh Anderson · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:34BUFZach Benson · Cross checkingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalMTL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Mike Matheson, 1st 4:27 — MTL 58% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.22T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.15J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.14J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.14T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Benson · Goal · xG 0.12R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.11J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.11A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.11A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.10R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.09J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.09J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.09J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.08R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.07A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.07J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.06J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.05R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.05J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.04J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · Missed · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.02J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.01J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.01J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · Missed · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.00L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.00J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 2.6 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsBUF
4.04 G
All situations
1 G2.6
2.44 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
0.80 G
Power play
0 G1.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL64%36%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.42 – 2.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsBUF
28
Shots on goal
29
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/5
Power play
0/5
22
Penalty minutes
12
18
Hits
44
18
Blocked shots
11
11
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8M. MathesonD101+330.10130—26:44
21K. GuhleD011010.03222—20:56
48L. HutsonD011+130.08010—20:54
14N. SuzukiC101040.951005620:03
45A. CarrierD101+410.13214—19:38
20J. SlafkovskýL000010.13120—17:56
13C. CaufieldR000020.66000—17:06
15A. NewhookC202+240.610102516:46
71J. EvansC011+220.150006416:32
53N. DobsonD011-150.15150—16:20
24P. DanaultC011+300.072206714:33
17J. AndersonR011+200.271012—14:29
93I. DemidovR000+100.15110—13:18
76Z. BolducR000010.04100—12:02
77K. DachC000000.35000011:18
90J. VelenoC000010.071005010:32
72A. XhekajD000+100.02302—09:32
85A. TexierL000+200.00100—09:21
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
75J. Dobes(W)29281.9662.59+1.5960:00

Series

MTL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).