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Maple Leafs at Panthers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
4
Florida Panthers
▸5
Final/OTTV TNT, truTV·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4 in overtime, Brad Marchand scoring at 15:27. The Panthers came back from two goals down. The Panthers led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brad Marchand's goal at 15:27 of overtime, which took the Panthers' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.4 to 2.5; shots on goal were TOR 31, FLA 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 1.6 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brad Marchand (1 G), 2. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 1 A), 3. John Tavares (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    B. Marchand1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR212141708431
FLAFLA110390819536

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(5)
    A. Matthews (7), M. Marner (9)
    wristxG 0.31win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:23
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(4)
    M. Pacioretty (5), W. Nylander (8)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    5:57
  3. FLA
    A. Barkov(3)
    S. Reinhart (5), E. Rodrigues (2)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    7:38

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(5)PPG
    M. Marner (10), W. Nylander (9)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-1
    2:52
  2. FLA
    S. Reinhart(3)
    E. Rodrigues (3), A. Ekblad (2)
    pokexG 0.44win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:13
  3. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(3)
    S. Bennett (3), M. Tkachuk (4)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-3
    5:17
  4. FLA
    J. Gadjovich(1)
    T. Nosek (1), N. Schmidt (2)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-4
    15:07

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(4)
    A. Matthews (8), M. Knies (2)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +31 ptsVideo
    4-4
    10:56

Overtime

  1. FLA
    B. Marchand(2)
    D. Kulikov (3), C. Verhaeghe (4)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +48 ptsVideo
    4-5
    15:27

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·FLA 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:54FLAMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 12:16TORBrandon Carlo · Cross checkingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 17:13TORMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min
  • 17:27FLACarter Verhaeghe · Holding the stickdrawn by Chris Tanev2 min

2nd

  • 2:35FLAA.J. Greer · Interferencedrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 9:54FLADmitry Kulikov · Holdingdrawn by Max Domi2 min

3rd

  • 18:13TORMax Pacioretty · Trippingdrawn by Seth Jones2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTOR goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Brad Marchand, OT 15:27 — FLA 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.44B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.17S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.16C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.15S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.14C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.13N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.13C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.10A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.09A. Greer · On goal · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.08J. Gadjovich · On goal · xG 0.07A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.07A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.07A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.07C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.06C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.06C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.06D. Kulikov · Missed · xG 0.06J. Gadjovich · On goal · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gadjovich · Missed · xG 0.04B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gadjovich · Goal · xG 0.04N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gadjovich · Missed · xG 0.03E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.03B. Marchand · Goal · xG 0.03A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kulikov · On goal · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.01N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.01B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01T. Nosek · On goal · xG 0.01A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.01T. Nosek · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.00E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.00
FLA5 G · 3.4 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsFLA
2.54 G
All situations
5 G3.4
2.13 G
Even strength
5 G2.7
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR34%66%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.43 – 3.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsFLA
31
Shots on goal
36
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
43
Hits
62
20
Blocked shots
14
16
Giveaways
18
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD101-220.15220—28:01
22J. McCabeD000+100.01130—27:25
16M. MarnerR022-100.003005025:57
23M. KniesL112030.49400—25:33
91J. TavaresC202-160.442106225:09
34A. MatthewsC022030.265005024:35
25B. CarloD000-300.00242—23:53
88W. NylanderR022020.200005023:50
8C. TanevD000+110.00020—23:45
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000020.05110—21:54
2S. BenoitD000-110.02250—20:29
29P. HolmbergR000-230.04100—18:12
19C. JarnkrokC000020.45310015:26
67M. PaciorettyL011000.00502—15:11
24S. LaughtonC000010.074105613:22
74B. McMannC000-110.00500013:18
18S. LorentzC000020.1720010013:04
11M. DomiC000-120.121024612:11
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)36315.8613.38-1.6275:27

Series

FLA leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).